2024 Result
Fianna Fáil 48
Sinn Féin 39
Fine Gael 38
Independents 16
Social Democrats 11
Labour 11
Independent Ireland 4
PBP/Solidarity 3
Aontú 2
Green Party 1
100% Redress 1
Current Projection
Fianna Fáil 42 (-6)
Sinn Féin 43 (+4)
Fine Gael 39 (+1)
Independents 12 (-4)
Social Democrats 15 (+4)
Labour 10 (-1)
Independent Ireland 6 (+2)
PBP/Solidarity 3 (nc)
Aontú 3 (+1)
Green Party 0 (-1)
100% Redress 1 (nc)
Seat Map
Hello again. The first question might be, why is this the first full Dáil projection since the election? It’s been over a year. To which the answer is: things have been quite static, polling-wise, since the election. We are currently seeing a small trend towards the opposition and away from the government as a whole, but it’s still pretty marginal; under current numbers Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael would not need much help to continue in government.
The projection has FF and FG at a combined 81 seats, with the left-opposition at 72, right-opposition at 9 and 12 Independents. Despite the slight decline in support for the two main government parties, if these numbers were to endure until an election (which is very far away, so do not assume that would be the case), it is difficult to see any viable configuration that is not a continuation of FF and FG. The anti-government sentiment expressed in the Presidential election has not transferred to General Election polling, which should not come as a surprise.
Given how extensive the constituency analysis will be – I will be covering all constituencies, and this post is already over 10,000 words – I will spare a longer introduction and move to the constituencies, with one note below about scheduling:
Moving forward, the schedule I’ll be aiming for will be quarterly until we are closer to an election. Monthly posts years out from an election are pointless, especially when polls are still relatively static. I will however of course change this if we start seeing more dramatic changes. I also plan on previewing the upcoming by-elections in Galway West and Dublin Central once we have a better idea of who the candidates will be, with the usual caveat that by-elections are highly idiosyncratic and often behave as outliers from general polling.
Seat Changes
This post includes an update for every constituency, even where there is no projected change from the current result. You can click the appropriate link in this table to jump to each constituency:
2024 RESULT: 3 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF
CURRENT PROJECTION: 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 SD
PROJECTED GAINS: SD +1
PROJECTED LOSSES: FF -1
Fianna Fáil pulled off a masterclass in vote management to get three seats here in 2024, aided by an overambitious Fine Gael strategy. With FF support sliding, it will be much more difficult – though not impossible – to repeat this on current numbers. What we are looking at is a highly marginal race for the final seat between said 3rd FF candidate, a 2nd FG candidate, a second SF candidate and the SDs. The elimination order here will be critical, as will transfers; small deviations from general trends could have significant impact.
At the moment the model favours the Social Democrats – likely Senator Patricia Stephenson – to take the final seat in a pattern that echoes Senator Malcolm Noonan’s 2020 victory for the Green Party; behind on first preferences, but able to pull enough left-wing transfers from a scattered field to get over the line. The Social Democrats are going through a very strong period of polling; a higher first preference than last time seems likely and would put Stephenson firmly in the zone to pull this off.
It’s worth noting that even with two Sinn Féin candidates in the race in 2024, Stephenson handily outgained them on transfers. Against eventually winner of the final seat, Natasha Newsome Drennan, she closed a 2,100 vote gap on FPV to a 500 vote gap by the time she was eliminated. A relatively small shift would bridge this gap. It’s also worth noting that Drennan was significantly outpolled by her running-mate on FPV before overtaking her on transfers (geography was an outsize factor!). As well as the FF seat being vulnerable, there is a world in which SF lose the Kilkenny seat but gain a Carlow one – as well as a world in which they win both.
2024 RESULT: 2 FF, 1 FG, 2 SF
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 1 FG, 2 SF, 1 AON
PROJECTED GAINS: AON +1
PROJECTED LOSSES: FF -1
Aontú were competitive for a seat here in 2024, but Senator Sarah O’Reilly could not do enough in the end. The model had projected her for a seat, but she was less attractive to right-wing transfers than was factored, and she came up just over 800 votes short. Aontú are having a relatively strong period of polling – emphasis on relatively, as we are talking a positive change of less than a point since the General Election – which should put them very much in the mix for some of their narrower misses from 2024.
Also looking at the final seat are Fianna Fáil, who currently hold it, and Sinn Féin pushing for a third seat. Right now, FF would be the more likely of those two due to SF’s continual difficulty in picking up transfers in constituencies like this – they would need to get a better FPV % than is currently indicated in order to get a third across the line.
The caveats here are twofold. The first is the eternal one with small parties – their projections will always be more volatile in the face of relatively small movements, so there is bigger scope for error. The second is that the gap between her and the candidates behind her is extremely marginal, with the smallest of edges going to the Aontú candidate. I’d consider this to be pretty much a coinflip at this stage.
2024 RESULT: 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF
CURRENT PROJECTION: 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF
PROJECTED GAINS: nc
PROJECTED LOSSES: nc
It is very difficult on these numbers to see much change in Clare. Fianna Fáil’s polling may have dipped a bit but so has Fine Gael’s, and they aren’t close enough to make a difference here; though not running three candidates might be a start. Sinn Féin are nowhere near being viable for two. Is there anywhere interest could come from? Maybe.
There are two things worth looking at here. Firstly, with Róisín Garvey leaving the party, there’s a rather substantial Green vote floating around. A lot of that may be Garvey’s personal vote and dissipate rightwards, but if it were to drift towards, say, the Social Democrats, that could make things interesting at least – if still not likely to challenge for a seat.
Secondly, this should in many ways be fertile ground for Independent Ireland. Even with Eddie Punch – a poor campaigner – running in 2024, they beat Aontú and the other right-wing options. I don’t know how viable this could end up being, but if they can find a candidate capable of running a decent campaign, this is somewhere they could push in pretty hard. Conversely, if Aontú can get ahead of II and benefit from transfers, they could take on the mantle of right-wing challenger. Both of the above are a stretch, sure, but if you want potential interest, there it is.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 SD
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 SD
PROJECTED GAINS: nc
PROJECTED LOSSES: nc
Despite how close the last seat was here in 2024 (not to mention the Fermoy-based transfers deciding which Fine Gael candidate got a seat!), current numbers don’t point to a change here. Indeed, if anything, they point to a less competitive race overall; the only real interest is the intra-party contests for the single seats Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael look set to win each.
A lot of the intrigue last time came down to two relatively strong Independent candidates in Mary Linehan Foley and William O’Leary; while the modelling assumes until informed otherwise that both will run again, Independent candidates are not polling very well at all at the moment; a chunk of these votes is going to parties again, both on the left and right. With the right absolutely nowhere in this constituency, and Liam Quaide (Social Democrats) likely to benefit the most from the drift in support to his party, it seems all the incumbent parties shoudl be fairly comfortable here.
If, however, one or both of O’Leary and Linehan Foley opt not to run again, a huge amount of votes – 17.5% of total FPV! – is suddenly up for grabs. That could in theory make things very interesting; it’s not clear where those votes would go. On the other hand, they could equally gravitate towards incumbents. It’s hard to tell as both were eliminated relatively late, but in both cases, their transfers did go all over the place within the limited pool of remaining candidates; geography seemed a bigger influencing factor than ideology.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 LAB, 1 II
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 LAB, 1 II
PROJECTED GAINS: nc
PROJECTED LOSSES: nc
No change projected here, but I’ll tell you something, Ken O’Flynn (Independent Ireland) might come under a bit of pressure here, but equally it could be an assumption in the polling that won’t map onto this constituency. In general, the context here is that the Social Democrats are polling really, really well in Munster. They ran two candidates here in 2024, which was pointless at best. They ended up surprisingly close to being in the running for a seat as a scattered field competed for the final slot.
With the SDs polling well – and assuming they pursue a better strategy – the model thinks they could run close to the final seat here. The immediate assumption would be that Labour would be the ones under pressure – and they certainly are – but greater pressure is on O’Flynn on raw numbers. However, I am not very confident in this being correct. As we saw with the 2024 modelling across Cork, even regional figures can bury more local nuance, and my feeling is O’Flynn’s personal support base is more resilient than the broad polling shows. Being able to factor this was why the model showed him winning a seat in 2024, I suspect we may see the same thing again.
A further complicating factor is that Cork North-Central had a stupid amount of candidates in 2024; if this doesn’t repeat it could change the dynamics significantly, not just for FPV but also for transfers. For example – far-right candidate and convicted criminal Derek Blighe (Ireland First) transferred heavily to O’Flynn. Blighe has announced this year he won’t run again; how many of his voters bother to turn up at all if he’s not on the ballot? Of course we shouldn’t believe anything that man says in the first place, but it’s important to consider these patterns and the uncertainty they introduce.
2024 RESULT: 2 FF, 1 FG
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF
PROJECTED GAINS: SF +1
PROJECTED LOSSES: FF -1
This one I’m really not sure about, and I think this will require further inspection of transfers; the model is reflecting how friendly Aontú transfers were for Sinn Féin in 2024. This is in isolation still plausible given the lack of viability for any other non-government candidates; but preventing Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael’s transfers from winning one or the other the final seat? I’m really not sure about that. It’s not completely implausible, and both FF and FG are seeing declining numbers in Munster, but the pattern feels more off than the result itself.
The big problem here is we don’t have a great idea of what FF and FG transfers in the constituency look like when a candidate from the left is involved – the last time this happened was with Labour in 2011, and that’s not really comparable to Sinn Féin in the moment. So one the one hand, there’s likely a blind spot in the data here; on the other hand, left-wing candidates have been reasonably competitive here in three of the last four elections. If current trends with FF and FG declining and SF improving continue, this outcome becomes more in reach.
2024 RESULT: 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 SD
CURRENT PROJECTION: 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 SD
PROJECTED GAINS: nc
PROJECTED LOSSES: nc
Cork South-Central right now looks a lot more straightforward than the northern urban constituency at this stage; on current numbers all the incumbents seem pretty comfortable, and this was not particularly close in 2024. There’s very little pointing at intrigue at this point; particularly now we have been able to re-baseline the Sinn Féin support levels after they underperformed polling in Cork in the last General Election. I suppose there’s a question of “but what if they don’t next time?”, but at that point we are dealing with very heavy speculation. Nothing much more to say here at this point, and I suspect there won’t be unless we see a significant polling movement.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 1 SD, 1 II
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FG, 1 SD, 1 II
PROJECTED GAINS: FG +1
PROJECTED LOSSES: FF -1
Two seats here look very comfortable as expected, for Holly Cairns (Social Democrats) and Michael Collins (Independent Ireland). The final seat between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael is however interesting. Fine Gael arguably should have won a seat here in 2024 (and 2020!) but both times completely botched their strategy, and one could argue, did not have the right candidates. This was particularly evident in 2024, where the two candidates very clearly did not get along well.
The model assumes that they run one candidate; in this on neutral ground they ought to have an edge over FF, who are experiencing rough polling in Munster at the moment. But this is based on the assumption that FG are capable of running a better campaign than recent elections; it is very much within their capacity to make a mess of this again. If they double up on candidates again, things get more difficult for them.
And It’s worth noting that in 2024 this mismanagement was not a problem isolated to Cork South-West; poor strategy may have cost FG seats in other places such as Mayo, Kildare North and Wexford as well. They should right now be favoured for the gain, but there’s a lot they can do wrong here and not an enormous margin for error.
2024 RESULT: 2 FF, 2 SF, 1 100R
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 3 SF, 1 100R
PROJECTED GAINS: SF +1
PROJECTED LOSSES: FF -1
Sinn Féin’s strategy here was pretty clear in 2024 – have Pearse Doherty rack up a massive surplus, and with Pádraig Mac Lochlainn likely doing very well on his own terms, distribute it in such a way that it drags their third candidate into viability. They managed the first two, but fell flat on the third, with Cllr. Noel Jordan ending up very distant as Mac Lochlainn got the vast majority of Doherty’s surplus, but not enough to make his own surplus transfers sufficient to help Jordan.
Now in a situation where Sinn Féin’s polling is improving and Fianna Fáil’s is declining, this strategy looks like it may have viability again – if they can get a better split of the surplus transfers, or even get enough of a surplus on Mac Lochlainn that it washes through, SF are reasonably well poised to take a seat off of FF here. Naturally higher uncertainty should be assumed with transfers, but one consistent point is that SF are incomparably good at getting discipline on transfers, especailly on first-round surpluses. Over 70% of their surplus transfers last time in Donegal stayed in party, which very high before you even consider that this was a race with two other strong left-wing candidates in Charles Ward and Thomas Pringle.
So in short, if Sinn Féin’s position improves on last time, and Fianna Fáil’s declines, both of which current trends point to, SF should be considered favourites to get three seats here. Barring a renaissance for Thomas Pringle (Independent) or Fine Gael in the constituency – neither of which polling points to right now – it looks like this is the battle for the final seat.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 SD, 1 IND
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 SD, 1 IND
PROJECTED GAINS: nc
PROJECTED LOSSES: nc
Four seats here look pretty solid, but the final seat here is another one where I think the transfers may warrant a closer look. Barry Heneghan (Independent) won the final seat here pulling in transfers from all over the place, and the modelling indicates he should be exepcted to do the same again on raw numbers. However, I do wonder if this will be the case in reality – considering that most of these were from non-government candidates, his decision to join government may hurt his ability to pull those in in future, even in the case that it doesn’t impact his first preferences all that negatively. I’m not sure there is a reliable way to model this though, so this may just end up carrying an asterisk.
If Heneghan isn’t able to repeat his performance, the final seat is likely to be narrowly contested between second candidates from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael; while FG has a slight edge here the margin is honestly statistically insignificant at the moment. If Sinn Féin can improve their vote management from 2024 and/or their polling continues to rise, they could also enter the conversation for a second seat. It’s also plausible that the Social Democrats get over a quota here, but I can’t see them trying to double up at this stage. Maybe if we get into real purple wave territory at some point, but I don’t think the juice is there right now.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SD, 1 LAB
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 LAB
PROJECTED GAINS: SF +1
PROJECTED LOSSES: SD -1
So. Let’s be frank here – under neutral circumstances, one would expect the Soc Dems to hold this seat comfortably. However, Eoin Hayes is yet to run into a rake he hasn’t wanted to step on and his brief tenure has been dogged by controversy. Perhaps this will be forgotten by the time the election rolls around, but I wouldn’t bank on it; there is a weighting in the model to account for this currently. I wouldn’t necessarily write him off entirely, particularly if SD polling continues to rise, but it’s an uphill struggle as the particular errors in judgement he made seem specifically designed to alienate the type of person who would have voted for him.
Sinn Féin ought be well positioned to reclaim a seat here regardless of Hayes’ foibles, but they will likely benefit the most, unless we see some form of revival in the Green Party’s fortunes between now and an election. That said this isn’t a slam dunk for them and there was some concerning entitlement towards the seat in SF ranks once the first Hayes scandal broke. Senator Chris Andrews still seems to be taking it seriously however and seems to have started campaigning pretty much as soon as he lost the seat, so that’s probably a better sign for them.
Another thing to note is that by the time the election rolls around, there is a non-zero chance that Fianna Fáil TD Jim O’Callaghan will be leader of the party, and also may have possibly been Taoiseach. On paper, O’Callaghan should be the weakest incumbent in this race (assuming neutral ground for Hayes), if he’s leading FF one has to assume he’ll be in a stronger position to expand his vote base at the expense of Fine Gael and, given how he’s been talking about migration recently, one assumes he’s targeting the small but significant chunk of far-right voters as well. This is interesting as there’s an extremely-soft-left vote in DBS which previously would have been the swing vote, and Hayes’ situation should make more of that available. With FF going the other way, Ivana Bacik might run up the score there.
2024 RESULT: 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 SD, 1 LAB (currently FG seat vacant; by-election pending)
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 SD, 1 LAB
PROJECTED GAINS: nc
PROJECTED LOSSES: nc
We’re pending a by-election on this one following the resignation of Paschal Donohue (Fine Gael), and honestly at this point it’s not clear who should be favoured to win there. The outcome will likely colour any projection so consider this kind of a placeholder. For what it’s worth I don’t expect FG to win the by-election, but I would reckon current Lord Mayor Ray McAdam would be able to win Paschal’s seat in the next General. The Labour seat is almost certainly the most vulnerable, and if Sinn Féin win the by-election they would have a real, though not guaranteed, shot at holding both seats; they are probably the only party that could manage that.
There’s also the whole Gerry Hutch thing, where those Clare Daly voters go, what happens with Malachy Steenson and so on. Big pinch of salt here until the by-election, but right now the numbers indicate no change.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 LAB
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 1 SD, 1 LAB
PROJECTED GAINS: SD +1
PROJECTED LOSSES: SF -1
Is there room for both Labour and the Social Democrats here? Honestly, it’s more plausible than it might sound at first. Cllr. Joan Hopkins did well in 2024, and the Soc Dems are polling in Dublin a good amount above the level they attained in that election. On Labour’s side, Duncan Smith remains popular and overcame what was on paper a horrible redraw to maintain his seat. There’s certainly votes up for grabs that would not involve cannibalising the other – for example, from both the Greens and Independents4Change. It would not take a big shift from 2024 numbers for both to beat Sinn Féin, and that’s what the model shows at the moment.
However, it would be remiss to not mention that this is very close between the three left-wing parties, with all of them and Fine Gael projected to land on a roughly similar level of FPV. At that point it comes down to transfers, so allowance for confidence levels must be made there. Beyond the Fianna Fáil seat, which is very secure, any of these four have a plausible path to fill one of the final two seats. Fine Gael’s path is harder as they don’t have an obvious source of transfers – any elimination of Labour, SF or SDs would favour the other two over FG – but despite a significant underperformance in 2024, they should not yet be discounted.
2024 RESULT: 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 LAB
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 LAB
PROJECTED GAINS: nc
PROJECTED LOSSES: nc
Unlike its sister Fingal constituency, Dublin Fingal West looks a bit more stable. We found out in 2024 that there really is a cap on Independent Cllr. Tony Murphy’s support, as, despite a strong performance in absolute terms, he underperformed general Independent polling. In the current polling environment, which is more negative for Independents, its hard to see him posing a threat to incumbents.
The same is true for the only other competitive party from 2024, Fianna Fáil. They face a more negative polling environment than they did in the GE, and Senator Lorraine Clifford-Lee has now lost three consecutive general elections; it’s not clear she will be the answer FF need in this constituency. She was competitive for the final seat, but again, if current numbers hold, she would need a significant overperformance against FF numbers, which she has not managed thus far.
That said, the Fine Gael seat here is not super-secure, and they are benefitting a lot from the polling trends being worse for their two main rivals than it is for them. Something could still happen here for sure, but it would need either a change in trends, or a local outlier – neither of which we have data pointing to at this stage.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 1 FG, 2 SF, 1 IND
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 1 FG, 2 SF, 1 SD
PROJECTED GAINS: SD +1
PROJECTED LOSSES: IND -1
Paul Gogarty was the model’s darling (correctly as it turned out!) for pretty much the entire election cycle last time, but it seems that this is no longer the case as polling numbers sour for Independent candidates across the country. Perhaps unsurprisingly, it is the Social Democrats who are best placed to take advantage, having come fairly close last time round and riding a wave of improved polling. This ought be one of their main targets for a gain next time, and on these numbers they should pull it off relatively handily.
I also would note that Gogarty did work very, very hard to reclaim his seat and expand his voter base through multiple local and general elections, so at this point it’s not like he’s complete toast, but he is up against it in a lot of ways. The Fianna Fáil seat here is also extremely wobbly; they barely finished ahead of Gogarty last time, and it’s still very narrow under the current model. There’s every possibility that they are the ones to lose out here instead of the Independent.
Something to keep an eye on here is that there was a significant right-wing and/or crank vote in this constituency in 2024. If that repeats in the next general election, whoever sits at the top of those grouping could pick up a lot of transfers. Independent Ireland Cllr. Linda de Courcy, who comfortably sits in both categories, was the main beneficiary of this last time, and I would not be surprised to see a repeat. It wouldn’t take a big increase here for to become competitive, especially if she could actually get ahead of Gogarty at any point.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 SD
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 SD
PROJECTED GAINS: nc
PROJECTED LOSSES: nc
No change projected in Dublin North-West, and the only way it will happen is if Sinn Féin can get their second candidate ahead of whatever Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will manage combined when one or the other is eliminated. This was plausible – likely even – during SF’s peak polling mid-last-cycle, but we are a relatively significant distance from that at the moment. SF did show decent vote management here in 2024, but simply were far distant from the number they needed. Unless they can increase their base vote, unseating Fianna Fáil’s Paul McAuliffe (who should at this stage be favoured over whoever Fine Gael field) isn’t very likely.
Actually, that’s not entirely true; there is one other scenario, albeit a more remote on. People Before Profit’s Cllr. Conor Reddy massively beat his own party’s trends in the 2024 election. In a world where he’s able to get ahead of the second SF candidate, he has a path through the surplus this would create for the lead SF candidate. It’s very much a long shot at this point but if he’s able to beat his own party’s trend in the same way he managed last time, it’s not beyond the realm of possibility.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 2 FG, 1 SD
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 2 FG, 1 SD
PROJECTED GAINS: nc
PROJECTED LOSSES: nc
I’ve written extensively previously about how strange Rathdown is as a constituency, but things look pretty steady on current numbers to keep all the incumbents in office. Its hard to see the Greens pulling back the ground they lost to the Social Democrats, Sinn Féin will need to be polling so much better than they currently are to win a seat here, and with Independent polling flagging, it’s hard to see a path for Cllr. Michael Fleming.
This is even the case with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil trending down; this is a constituency with a pretty inelastic conservative voting bloc, and Fleming apparently standing for nothing beyond something something Glencullen-Sandyford limits his potential to ruining Labour’s Lettie McCarthy’s day. There needs to be a big leftward or pro-Independent shift in polling to open things up here at this point.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 2 SF, 1 SD
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 2 SF, 1 SD
PROJECTED GAINS: nc
PROJECTED LOSSES: nc
Dublin South-Central was a chaos constituency, both in terms of the projections for the last election, and, more importantly, in real life, with an incredibly close spread of votes across a pretty large cluster of candidates. Despite this, the current polling trend actually firms things up for the current incumbents, favouring them to hold on more comfortably than some of them won their seats in 2024.
Sinn Féin should be comfortable holding two seats here, and the Soc Dems are well placed to increase their vote share and easily hold on as well. Between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael there are enough votes to keep FF in a seat comfortably. SF aren’t near the votes they need to pick up a third and while PBP should on paper be competitive again, the squeeze from other competition on the left that saw them miss out in 2024 is still a factor, with their polling in Dublin being pretty much what it was at the last GE.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 LAB, 1 PBPS
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 LAB, 1 PBPS
PROJECTED GAINS: nc
PROJECTED LOSSES: nc
No change projected here but there’s quite a lot going on “under the hood” here, as it were. Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin should all have no trouble holding their seats here. Beyond that things are a bit murkier. This is a constituency where the modelling was ahead of the curve in identifying Labour and PBP as favourites for the last two seats in 2024, so I also think it’s worth paying attention when it points to those seats as being very vulnerable, even if it still favours the incumbents.
The potential pressure here comes from three directions: the Social Democrats, Sinn Féin and a less coherent anti-establishment transfer affinity bloc. The SDs were distant here in 2024, but current polling patterns would point to them being a lot more competitive. Sinn Féin aren’t in range yet but are closer than last time and if the current trend continues, will become a threat. Finally, there is a potentially substantial anti-establishment vote here outside of Paul Murphy (PBP); this propelled Independent Cllr. Alan Edge to 6th place last time, including substantial transfers from people who are ideologically very distant from him. Whoever is the highest-polling of that group – likely an Independent or Aontú – could become compeititve if this transfer pattern holds.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 PBPS, 1 GP
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 SD, 1 PBPS
PROJECTED GAINS: SD +1
PROJECTED LOSSES: GP -1
It’s not been talked about much, but something noticeable is that the Green Party’s support has dropped even further since the election. Roderic O’Gorman holds their only seat here after a very creditable showing in 2024, but his position is shaky and it is likely that his centre-left vote base will come under further pressure from both the Social Democrats and Labour. It would not be a surprise to see whichever of those two gets ahead of the other take his seat; at this point the polling trends favour the SDs, albeit by a small amount.
The other four seats seem relatively comfortable at this point; while Ruth Coppinger (Solidarity) could slide backwards into the mix if their polling continues to stagnate, her position is on current numbers much more comfortable than O’Gorman’s. Aontú will also likely be pushing hard here again, but Cllr. Ellen Troy was far less transfer friendly than polling indicated she would be last time. If she can improve that, she should have a good run at a seat – although Dublin’s polling trends indicate that the pool of friendly transfers for her could be smaller than last time. This could end up being a close run thing.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 2 FG, 1 PBPS
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 2 FG, 1 PBPS
PROJECTED GAINS: nc
PROJECTED LOSSES: nc
Dún Laoghaire is not exactly known for being a volatile constituency, and that holds true even with downward polling for the government parties – the cushion they have here is pretty substantial, and it can certainly hold through worse polling; not to mention this should be somewhere where the centre-right, particularly Fine Gael, can outperform wider trends.
Richard Boyd Barrett (PBP) should also be fairly well able to hold the left-wing seat here; this is a brutally difficult constituency for Sinn Féin. Indeed, the greater threat to a seat here may end up coming from the Soc Dems. They came 5th in 2024, overhauling SF and the Greens on transfers. If their polling continue to improve, they could seriously threaten for a seat here, and depending on what happens elsewhere, there’s a chance it’s not Boyd Barret who loses out. But this would require more movement in the polls – for now, there’s a relatively comfortable cushion.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 IND
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 IND
PROJECTED GAINS: nc
PROJECTED LOSSES: nc
Galway East is another constituency that looks pretty stable on current numbers. The only challenge could come from Independent Ireland, who were reasonably competitive here in 2024, and remain so, but are still looking relatively distant. Unfortunately there really isn’t much else to note here – neither Fianna Fáil nor Fine Gael are in the range where they could seriously compete for a second seat, Sinn Féin should have no problem holding but are nowhere near having a second candidate, and Independent Seán Canney is very comfortable.
The only thing at this point that could invite future interest – barring obviously a significant change in polling – is if Canney, who will be around 70 by the time of the next election, decides not to run again. That could make things very unpredictable, but is also complete speculation at this point.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 2 IND (currently 1 IND seat vacant; by-election pending)
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 II, 1 IND
PROJECTED GAINS: II +1
PROJECTED LOSSES: IND -1
Similar to Dublin Central, we are pending a by-election here following the election of Catherine Connolly (Independent) to the Presidency. Before a by-election takes place, take any commentary on this constituency with a mountain of salt. But even if we just look at 2024 and leave that aside for the time being (as this projection will do until the by-election), the numbers do point to change. In the last General Election, Independent Ireland ran former Fianna Fáiler Cllr. Noel Thomas, and he ran long serving ex-PD Noel Grealish (Independent) much closer than many may have imagined.
A swing from Grealish to Thomas of around 500 votes would have flipped it, and current polling indicates that would be the more likely outcome now, albeit again this is very close. If Thomas is able to perform strongly or even win the upcoming by-election, that would be a further indication.
Of course, the other factor here is what happens to Connolly’s votes with her out of the picture. Reasonably it can be assumed these would break left, but to whose benefit? That is unclear. We haven’t seen Connolly’s transfers meaningfully distributed since 2007 (splitting between two FG candidates in 2020 does not count), which has basically no predictive value at this point. And it’s tough to say that they will make a difference unless they are heavily clustered to one candidate – the Soc Dems, Labour, PBP and Greens would need a huge chunk going there way to compete for a seat here, and Sinn Féin are nowhere near a second. The by-election will hopefully give some insight here, because otherwise we are flying blind in this regard.
2024 RESULT: 2 FF, 1 SF, 2 IND
CURRENT PROJECTION: 2 FF, 1 SF, 2 IND
PROJECTED GAINS: nc
PROJECTED LOSSES: nc
With Fianna Fáil’s polling declining, this should be among Fine Gael’s main targets – they went out of their way to lose a seat here in 2024 – but the numbers are still against them, not least because their own polling in Munster has declined more than FF’s has since the general election. It could well be the case that FG’s performance in Kerry was below replacement due to specific factors in that election, and a reversion to the mean will mean an overperformance relative to 2024. But for now we must assume that this is the baseline set.
Outside of FG, there doesn’t at this stage appear to be anyone else who can seriously challenge for a seat, which has been the case since Kerry was united into a five-seater in 2016. Barring a change in polling, the FF vs FG dynamic is really the only thing worth keeping an eye on at the moment.
2024 RESULT: 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 SD
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 2 FG, 1 SF, 1 SD
PROJECTED GAINS: FG +1
PROJECTED LOSSES: FF -1
An almightly strategic blunder by Fine Gael very likely cost them a second seat here in 2024 – what they thought they were doing running three candidates is beyond me – rectifying that in future would give them a marginal egde to swipe the final seat here off of Fianna Fáil on current numbers. It is not a gift, and I would expect something close, but they should be favoured assuming they don’t do anything silly again.
Beyond that, there are a few candidates in touching distance but not seriously close at this point. Labour could run well here, depending on how much pressure the surging Soc Dems put on their vote base, and ex-SD Cllr. Bill Clear, motivated by burning animus at not being selected, did well here in 2024. Clear has since joined Independent Ireland in one of the most incomprehensible political journeys in recent memory, which probably doesn’t do him a lot of favours overall. While he has shown he can get a good vote base in Naas, he already did rather well out of right-wing transfers so I’m not sure how much juice the II branding gets him, if it doesn’t end up hurting him given he cultivated his support base from the left.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 LAB (note: FF seat was outgoing CC returned automatically)
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 LAB
PROJECTED GAINS: nc
PROJECTED LOSSES: nc
Find yourself someone who loves you the way Fianna Fáil love not winning a seat in Kildare South. But seriously, after two major whiffs in a row, the change in Ceann Comhairle and re-opening of the fourth seat should allow FF to finally claim a seat here. FF’s struggles in South Kildare is actually quite remarkable – they won two of three seats here in 2016! So it is rather difficult to see them not picking one back up in a four-seater; they would have won a 4th seat if it was avaliable in both of the last two elections.
Could they still lose out? It’s not completely implausible. The Social Democrats have a solid base here and improving polling has them not too far off, and their base here is sufficiently geographically distant from Labour’s that they could end up not cannibalising eachother. But outside of that there isn’t anyone now who poses a major obstacle. I’d be surprised if Cathal Berry (Independent) runs again and be even more surprised if he’s competitive in the event that he does; nobody else looks even slightly close at the moment.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 IND
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 IND
PROJECTED GAINS: nc
PROJECTED LOSSES: nc
This is an interesting one. Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are a lot weaker in Laois than they ever have been historically, ex-Sinn Féin Independent Brian Stanley sits in a fairly idiosyncratic position, and SF did surprisingly well here in 2024 considering Stanley’s departure and its circumstances. The most obvious question is if SF can win a seat back from their former TD, but with their polling sliding, neither FF nor FG are miles clear of the fight either.
Still, it is a stretch to imagine SF and Stanley managing to pull in enough votes to get both of them ahead of either FF’s Seán Fleming or FG’s Willie Aird. There should in theory be a significant overlap in these vote bases; however SF’s relatively good performance in 2024 indicates this may not be so clear. It’s also worth noting that two other Independents combined for over 14% of FPV here last time out; what happens to those votes could also be crucial.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 LAB
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 SD
PROJECTED GAINS: SD +1
PROJECTED LOSSES: LAB -1
The figures here – with the Social Democrat polling being very strong across Munster – point to them taking the seat they narrowly lost to Labour in 2024. However, it’s worth noting that last time the numbers pointed to the SDs beating Labour as well, but Conor Sheehan pulled ahead of Elisa O’Donovan on transfers, ultimately prevailing by around 600 votes. Sheehan will also have the advantage of being an incumbent, so right now despite the numbers being in favour of the SDs, this is probably at most a coin-flip.
The other three seats should be relatively comfortable, with none of the big parties at this point looking particularly close to being able to threaten for a second. Nor is it clear that anyone else could mount a realistic challenge on current numbers – Aontú will probably do respectably, but would need a significant overperformance versus their polling to get into the picture, particularly as they proved less transfer-friendly in 2024 from FF and FG voters than past patterns indicated.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 II
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 II
PROJECTED GAINS: nc
PROJECTED LOSSES: nc
Not a lot to say on Limerick County – the three incumbents are in very comfortable position at the moment; the only potential threat is from Sinn Féin, and their polling will need to be a lot stronger than it is right now for them to realistically enter the picture. Unless that happens, or someone retires (unlikely), it’s hard to see anything changing here while the polls are where they are.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 2 FG, 1 SF, 1 IND
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 2 FG, 1 SF, 1 IND
PROJECTED GAINS: nc
PROJECTED LOSSES: nc
Longford-Westmeath was a bit of a quiet disaster for Fianna Fáil in 2024, losing a seat and being soundly beaten by Fine Gael in both Longford and Westmeath. This constituency functions as essentially two separate races, particularly in the case of FF and FG. With FF’s polling in Leinster sliding more than FG’s has, it is difficult to see this dynamic changing. Furthermore, Sinn Féin and Independent Kevin “Boxer” Moran seats look secure under current polling. Short of a reversal in FF’s fortunes, or a decline in FG’s, there isn’t a visible source for a likely change.
The closest challenge to any of these in 2024 was from former Sinn Féiner and ex-Cllr Paul Hogan (Independent Ireland), but he still ended up very distant of a seat; despite there certainly being a right-wing vote in the constituency, there isn’t anything currently to indicate that he will be seriously in contention on current numbers. Now, if MEP Ciarán Mullooly were to decide to stick his oar in for II? That might make things more interesting, particularly as he is from Longford rather than Westmeath (Hogan is Westmeath-based) and thus would presumably not find himself having to scrap with “Boxer” Moran for as many votes.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 1 FG, 2 SF, 1 LAB
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 1 FG, 2 SF, 1 LAB
PROJECTED GAINS: nc
PROJECTED LOSSES: nc
Louth is yet another constituency where the current polling doesn’t point to any great change being likely. Sinn Féin could be pushing for a third seat, but that would require a more significant polling increase, particularly given that Louth is very heavily divided between north and south; this would need someone who can cross that divide effectively, or to massively run up the score in one end of the consitutency. Labour’s Ged Nash should be fine here, and the base vote for FF and FG is still holding up to the point where their seats look pretty comfortable; despite the geographic division in FPV, the impact on transfers within parties is less dramatic than, say, Longford-Westmeath.
There are some other things to consider here. First off, this constituency had a ridiculous number of candidiates in 2024, and while most of them did terribly as individuals, there’s a pool of about 4% in right-wing and crank votes, before we even consider Aontú and Hermann Kelly (Irish Freedom Party – though the IFP have imploded multiple times since the election so God knows what’s going on there). That’s actually a pretty solid bloc if they can get their act together and not have the vote atomise; but given that they couldn’t even keep the IFP itself together for five minutes, let alone co-operate with any of the other far-right factions, I would not bank on it.
Secondly, Fine Gael got themselves into a complete mess by standing by the disaster area that was then-Senator John McGahon, even as the situation became increasingly untenable. It’s very possible that they could do better with a less controversial candidate running alongside Paula Butterly, but equally it is hard to see who a second Fine Gaeler could actually take out. But worth keeping in mind nonetheless.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 2 FG, 1 SF, 1 AON
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 2 FG, 1 SF, 1 AON
PROJECTED GAINS: nc
PROJECTED LOSSES: nc
No change in the outcome, but some interesting indications behind it. While Fine Gael made things hard for themselves by running four candidates in 2024 – they probably would have got three seats with three candidates – current numbers point to two as the most likely outcome this time round even with a more optimal strategy, though three would not be a complete outlier. Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin second candidates could in theory be vote managed into competitiveness, and I would expect Aontú to increase their vote share particularly if far-right candidate Stephen Kerr (Independent) does not run again.
All of this nets out as no change as the most likely result, but as above, there are three theoretically viable candidacies behind that. There is of course a question of what happens to Independent Cllr. Patsy O’Brien’s vote if he does not go again. We didn’t end up seeing where his votes would have gone, but given his former Fine Gael membership, one could assume they go there. On the other hand, his departure was in acrimonious circumstances to say the least, and as we saw with Noel French in Meath West, personal support does not always favour former parties.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 IND
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 IND
PROJECTED GAINS: nc
PROJECTED LOSSES: nc
In theory, this should be a decent target for Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin to all target a second seat in, but Independent Gillian Toole has a likely edge in FPV even with Independent polling going downwards, and will likely once again benefit from significant transfers from Aontú. On current trends, Sinn Féin should have a small edge between those three, with FF the most distant, but managing vote splits would be very important here.
Aontú of course are another factor to consider – it would not take much to make them competitive here, and while it’s hard to be confident with their numbers given how small swings can have outsize impact on small parties, this was somewhere they did very decently in 2024. It is unlikely both Aontú and Toole could win a seat, but if Aontú get ahead of the incumbent, one would expect her transfers to benefit them. I suspect this will be one of the chief targets for the right-wing party in the next election.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 AON
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 AON
PROJECTED GAINS: nc
PROJECTED LOSSES: nc
Sinn Féin and Aontú should still be very comfortable – more so than last time – holding their seats here on current polling figures. This leaves a competition between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael for the final seat. Last time this was settled by transfers from Independent Cllr. Noel French, whose votes broke more favourably for Fianna Fáil than they did for his former party, albeit at this point with a bunch of other candidates’ first preferences mixed in.
This is right now once of the closest races under the model; the median result is a ~0.1% total valid poll edge for the incumbent FF TD, so essentially this is a true conflip, and I suspect this will swing back and forth as FF and FG’s polling fluctuates. Outside of this, the Social Democrats will likely do well again, but even with the currently positive polling will need a significant outlier performance to threaten for the final seat here, particularly with the likelihood of an eliminated FF/FG candidate transferring heavily to the other over the SDs.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 IND
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 IND
PROJECTED GAINS: SF +1
PROJECTED LOSSES: FG -1
In 2024, Sinn Féin overperformed their polling significantly here, with Cllr. Aoife Masterson coming within 120 votes of an upset over Fine Gael’s John Clendennen. With polls moving towards SF, it should not be a surprise that the model sees this small gap evaporating, to the point where Sinn Féin should be significantly favoured to gain a seat here.
Similar to Meath West, polling points to an extremely close race between FF and FG for the final seat, with the added factor that both are incumbents. However, there are key differences at play. Right now there is a small edge to FF, but this is under the assumption they run two candidates again; the edge grows if current TD Tony McCormack is the sole candidate. This could also be further increased if ex-FF Cllr. Eddie Fitzpatrick does not also run; his transfers indicate that he pulled away more votes from FF than from other parties.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 II
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 II
PROJECTED GAINS: nc
PROJECTED LOSSES: nc
Independent Ireland and Sinn Féin look pretty comfortable here, with the third seat between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, with an advantage for the former. This is working under the assumption that FG only run one candidate; running two here did not do them any favours in 2024.
Another factor of course that could benefit FF is if their former Senator Eugene Murphy does not run again; his decision to go for it as an Independent after failing to get selected appears to have had more impact on votes for FF than FG. If he’s not a candidate, it seems likely a good of these voters will go “home” and thus shore up the Fianna Fáil position. Realistically, FG will need to see a shift in polling patterns if they want to claim a seat that has been just out of reach since the creation of the constituency.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 IND
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 II
PROJECTED GAINS: II +1
PROJECTED LOSSES: IND -1
Last time round, Independent Ireland’s Cllr. Michael Clarke, formerly of Fianna Fáil (not to be confused with Blackrock-based Fianna Fáil Cllr. Michael Clarke) came very close to unseating veteran Independent Marian Harkin, significantly outpolling her on FPV and ultimately ending up only around 500 votes adrift. This almost-upset should set up II to have another serious run at this seat, particularly given the relatively poor polling environment for Independent candidates at the moment. The model reflects this, and although Harkin’s proven transfer-friendliness makes this relatively close, on current numbers, II should be favoured for a gain here.
Both Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil were competitve to win a second seat in 2024, with the former undone by a lack of transfers and the latter by a very poorly managed three-candidate strategy – sub-40% in-party transfers is quite bad. With a more positive polling environment, SF may be less reliant on transfers and able to close the gap somewhat, and despite the drop in their polling, a better managed strategy from FF would see them seriously competing.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 1 LAB, 1 IND
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 1 LAB, 1 IND
PROJECTED GAINS: nc
PROJECTED LOSSES: nc
Tipperary North seems fairly stable based on current numbers; Michael Lowry (Independent), Alan Kelly (Labour) and Ryan O’Meara (Fianna Fáil) are all on track to be comfortably returned. Sinn Féin, even if they don’t run two candidates (a decision made for reasons that remain completely obscure to me) look like they will have trouble pushing for a seat here, and it’s hard to see an Independent like Jim Ryan make a breakthrough as long as Lowry is around.
Lowry is 72, and would be 76 by the time the next election is scheduled. Could he retire? I wouldn’t bank on it, but if he does, I’m not sure what happens. The reasonable expectation is that a member of his “team” on Tipperary County Council would slide in in his place, and in that case I’d suspect they hold a lot of the vote anyway. Even if that does come to pass, I’m not sure how much it changes the dynamics overall.
2024 RESULT: 1 FG, 2 IND
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 IND
PROJECTED GAINS: SF +1
PROJECTED LOSSES: IND -1
Last time round, less than 80 votes separated Sinn Féin incumbent from Independent Séamus Healy, with it clear that one’s transfers would elect the other ahead of Fianna Fáil. In that case, the Independent won out, but with polling moving back towards SF, the model sees them as favoured to reverse the dynamic and get elected from Healy’s transfers. That said, Tipperary politics can be hyper-local, even by Irish standards, so some deviation from broader trends should be anticipated as a possibility.
Fianna Fáil should again do decently here despite their polling slide, but it’s very difficult to see a path for them given that they will likely be competing with a left-wing candidate for another left-wing candidate’s transfers. Fine Gael’s position here is pretty good, as is that of Mattie McGrath (Independent). John O’Heney (Independent) ran well in 2020, but it’s difficult to see a path for a third Independent here while the other two are around.
This brings us to something to consider: that Healy is the second oldest TD in the Dáil (Pat the Cope is the oldest!), and Mattie is no spring chicken either. Similar to Lowry, it seems likely that McGrath will have a successor lined up if he does step aside, given his daughter is a councillor and he also has a “team” (had? Mattie’s been alienating a lot of people lately). I’m not sure this is so clearly the case with Healy (Cllr. Pat English maybe?), and if he does end up stepping down I suspect Sinn Féin would benefit quite a bit simply by dint of being a viable left-wing option.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 1 FG, 2 SF
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 1 FG, 2 SF
PROJECTED GAINS: nc
PROJECTED LOSSES: nc
Difficult to see a change happening in Waterford with Sinn Féin’s polling position improving; I can’t imagine Matt Shanahan (Independent) will try a comeback, and if he does, current numbers do not indicate that he will be successful. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael also comfortably have the votes to hold their seats here right now, and while they are polling well across the province, the Social Democrats would need a colossal overperformance even in this friendly polling environment. Right now the numbers do not show any path to unseating the incumbents, and would need a relatively substantial change for any of the seats here to come into play.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 LAB, 1 IND
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 1 SF, 1 LAB, 1 IND (note: IND seat is outgoing CC returned automatically)
PROJECTED GAINS: nc
PROJECTED LOSSES: nc
With Verona Murphy (Independent) becoming Ceann Comhairle, Wexford will almost certainly be a three seater in the next election, as she will get returned automatically. The only circumstance in which we have four open seats is if she steps away from politics, which is a possibility so remote it should not even be considered. That leaves us with a bit of a squeeze where Fianna Fáil, Labour, Sinn Féin and Fine Gael are all competing for three seats – with Aontú likely not that far behind. Fine Gael are currently the weakest of those four, with the lowest probability of a seat even if they don’t repeat their doomed two-candidate strategy from 2024. While the same logjam would likely have arisen even with Murphy running, given she would be a likely repeat poll-topper, the dynamics shift quite a bit without her in the race.
The question becomes, where do the Murphy transfers go? We actually have quite good data on this; while her surplus was small, it was a first count surplus, meaning it was distributed proportional to all of her first preferences. And reader, those transfers went all over the place. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil did the best in absolute terms, Independent Cllr. Michael Sheehan and Indpendents4Change’s Mick Wallace (!!!) did the best relative to their FPV% and Aontú’s Jim Codd probably did the best if we blend both those metrics. Overall though the votes scattered widely enough to not really make much of a difference.
However, this is in a situation where Murphy is in the race, things are different if she is not. As outgoing Ceann Comhairle, she will scarcely be able to endorse a candidate or campaign for them, but she has built an impressive network in the Wexford Independent Alliance, which won 5 seats in the last local elections. If that group puts forward or rows in behind a candidate, that could upset the balance. Projections won’t account for this unless it happens, but worth considering as a potential eventuality.
2024 RESULT: 2 FG, 1 SF, 1 SD
CURRENT PROJECTION: 2 FG, 1 SF, 1 SD
PROJECTED GAINS: nc
PROJECTED LOSSES: nc
Simon Harris, eh? Whatever your views of him, his performance in 2024 was spectacular, and even a crude analysis of his surplus indicates that he pulled in a lot of votes from outside of the FG pool, given that the in-party transfers were well below average. Part of this may be due to him being Taoiseach at the time of the election, but guess what? He’s almost certainly going to be Taoiseach heading into the next election. Even with FG sliding in the polls, he’ll be fine. In addition to this, right now should be favoured to bring in a running mate, especially if there’s no disgruntled ex-Fine Gaeler running as an Independent after not getting selected.
Sinn Féin and the Social Democrats should be in good shape to hold their seats here as well; none of the other left-wing parties look like they are going to be at the races on current numbers. Hard to see where a challenge to either comes from, particularly with both parties moving up in the polls at the moment.
One other thing to note here is that the baselining for Fianna Fáil here might be off due to Stephen Donnelly’s atrocious underperformance in 2024; I believe this was the biggest underperformance for FF relative to polling indications nationally, as Donnelly got around 55% of what polling indicated FF would get in the constituency. It’s possible that another FF candidate – particularly one who doesn’t have his geographic base devoured by Simon Harris like Donnelly did – reverts to the mean and is more competitive. In that case, the model will be wrong, and FF will have a decent shot to win a seat back off of FG.
2024 RESULT: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF
CURRENT PROJECTION: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF
PROJECTED GAINS: nc
PROJECTED LOSSES: nc
There’s very little to say here. It would take a seismic polling movement for the Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael or Sinn Féin seats here to be meaningfully threatened. And we are nowhere near that being the case. I wish I had more to write here but this constituency is, simply put, one of the most stable ones around on current polling numbers.
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Irish Election Projections 