Current TDs: 1 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 GP
Projection: 1 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 PBP
This one has bounced back and forth a few times over the last year or so, so it shouldn’t be too surprising that with Sinn Féin’s numbers dropping, the model isn’t favouring them here anymore. It’s, naturally, still very close and there are a bunch of vote management scenarios under which SF can win a second seat here, but based on the historical data we have, PBP are favoured to make the pick up here now.
This remains an interesting constituency for exactly that reason – not because of the inherent closeness apparent in the modelling, but because the ability of vote management to change the scenario here. In isolation, one could very easily consider both SF and FG are better positioned to add a second seat than PBP are to gain one, but we don’t have data to support that they can manage the vote that precisely. Nor, honestly, is there an indication that either have strong enough second candidates to make that process particularly easy.
Sinn Féin up a little in Dublin, People Before Profit/Solidarity down a little and that pushes this seat back into SF’s column. There were always, I think, a ton of variables going into a PBP/S gain here but it’s still not an impossibility.
Not much else to add that hasn’t already been mentioned in recent coverage of this constituency, but worth noting as well that SF and PBP/S aren’t the only possibilities here – the Greens could, with a recovery of a couple of percentage points be competitive here. Also there is a scenario where FG win a second seat – but their historically terrible management of vote splits in Dublin is factored into the model, and thus disfavours them against SF, even if the projected FPV share is roughly equivalent.
Here’s one we haven’t seen for more than a year – PBP/Solidarity favoured to win a seat in Dublin West, assuming that Ruth Coppinger is the candidate. I do not know if this will be the case or not, but the model assumes unless demonstrated otherwise that candidates will be the same as the prior election. Regardless, this is a good look for PBP/S and a result of a month where they have ticked up. While the Greens have ticked down and look a bit more distant from competing for the seat, that’s not what’s important here; it’s that PBP/S may now be able to overtake a second SF candidate.
This is very marginal and transfers will be important so I would not be surprised if this continues to fluctuate, but this would be a huge pick-up for them if they could pull it off at SF’s expense – especially given the narrative that SF are going to squash the rest of left – which polling in Dublin doesn’t necessarily support at this stage.
As mentioned in discuss Dublin Bay South this month, if there is truth to the rumours about Varadkar leaving here, I’m not sure what that would do to the FG vote. Nothing good I suspect but at this point, there is no point speculating on the basis of rumours.
Another Dublin constituency, and another likely Green loss in the face of weak polling in the capital in April, giving Sinn Féin a marginal advantage to return a second candidate ahead of the Junior Minister. But that’s not all of it – while based on past vote management, SF are best placed to unseat an incumbent, if Fine Gael can get themselves together, they could well be in a position to return a second candidate themselves. However, they have recently been absolutely awful at getting their heavyweights to drag a second candidate over the line, particularly in Dublin. Without a serious shift in their strategy this possibility remains purely mathematical.
Of course, as I’ve mentioned in the past there is a wild card here because of how the model is built – it assumes Ruth Coppinger (Solidarity) will run, and do pretty well. If she doesn’t run, that will likely change the calculus here pretty significantly.
The Green recovery in Dublin is real, and Dublin West is another area where they look increasingly competitive, now to the point where the model favours Roderic O’Gorman to hold his seat against a putative second Sinn Féin candidate. This is always a very competitive constituency, but if the current Green trends continue, it could end up being comfortable for them. With that said I’m not sure that the Greens aren’t approaching their ceiling in Dublin, so I expect this will end up being very competitive and I expect the swinging back-and-forth on the last seat to continue
Final seat changing hands here again, this time going back to Sinn Féin at the expense of the Green Party as their numbers rise in Dublin, but this is still really close, with PBP/Solidarity not out of it either. There’s a lot that will come down to transfers and elimination order. Overall not a lot has changed in the analysis since September, although this is the third projection change since then – it’s a matter of fluctuation along fine margins, though if SF’s upward trajectory continues we could see a firming up here.
Good month of polling for the Greens, especially in Dublin, gives Roderic O’Gorman the edge here to keep his seat, for the first time this year. It’s interesting looking back on the change since January – at that stage, the polling didn’t give a path to Jack Chambers (FF) or O’Gorman. But both of their parties have been recovering in Dublin, albeit by different amounts and at different timescales.
This puts the constituency pretty much back at the status quo, but it remains overall extremely competitive and the final seats will come down to the wire under current conditions. It’s also worth reminding that with good vote management, a second seat for either Fine Gael or Sinn Féin remains a possibility.
Well, I certainly didn’t see *this* coming. With the Green Party’s vote plateauing at a much lower level than GE20, Sinn Féin failing to increase their vote and PBP/Solidarity support reviving somewhat, Dublin West has potential to go back to being the drama-filled slugfest we all know and love. And right now, the model is bringing the spice, showing that the most probable outcome based on current polling is Ruth Coppinger nabbing back the final seat in her (and Joe Higgins’) old stomping ground.
This demonstrates something I mentioned up above – if PBP or Solidarity candidates can get ahead of Sinn Féin running mates, they have a real shot at outperforming expectations, as those transfers will break heavily in their favour.
Now, I have absolutely no idea if Coppinger would run again after engaging in the second-strangest Seanad run of this election cycle. But if she did, her chances right now look good. Of course, if it’s not her, Solidarity may not do as well with a lower profile candidate, and I believe they only have one sitting councillor based in the constituency.
I should also caveat that this is extremely close. While FG and SF are guaranteed a seat each, the final two are going to be very competitive between Solidarity, Fianna Fáil and second FG/SF candidates. The Greens aren’t a million miles away either and there’s a lot of knife-edge breaks that will go in the direction of whichever candidates ultimately emerge successful. But right now, it’s the left with the slight edge.
I’d sort of written Dublin West off at the start of the year as a fairly boring constituency, where both SF and FG had a significant enough chunk of FPV to cruise to two seats each and leave it there. I shouldn’t have thought it would be so simple – Dublin West consistently brings the drama. Barring 2011, there have been almighty battles for the last seat or two involving many high-profile TDs, both left and right. Therefore it ought be no surprise that improving the forecasting of a likely vote split has made this much more interesting. In 2020, Leo Varadkar (FG) was elected on the 5th count, spawning a rake of stupid claims about his legitimacy among Twitter’s many Electoral System Understanders (and then for some reason, right-wing English rag the Daily Express got in on the action. A bad time was had by all). On current numbers the Taoiseach Tánaiste would rack up a healthy surplus, to the point where he should be able to drag Emer Currie (or an alternative running-mate) over the line.
Conversely, Sinn Féin have a problem. They should easily double Jack Chambers’ (FF) FPV, but looking at the splits Paul Donnelly probably won’t be able to run up a surplus to help out his running mate. More significantly, if Donnelly doesn’t hit the quota early, he’ll end up absorbing left-wing transfers that could go to a potential running mate, and won’t end up transferring back down. SF do still have a healthy FPV advantage to play with, and the model is very, very close between FF and SF for the last seat. SF will need to pull off some relatively tricky vote management if they want to make this comfortable.
This one, I’m afraid, simply isn’t that interesting. On current polling, SF and FG are in a position to comfortably split up enough of the FF, PBP and Green vote between them that not only are they going to win two seats each, they’re not going to be particularly challenged along the way. Indeed, the model indicates that Jack Chambers (FF) and Roderic O’Gorman (GP) don’t have a path at all to keeping their seats unless polling starts shifting in their favour.
Even a potential comeback attempt by PBP-Solidarity heavyweight Ruth Coppinger doesn’t seem likely to have much of an impact, unless something changes.