Wicklow-Wexford

Profile

Province: Rest of Leinster

Seats: 3

Current TDs: no incumbents

Projection: 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG

Analysis

August 2023 (redraw)

The new Wicklow-Wexford constituency is made up of the northern part of Wexford and the southern part of Wicklow. About 58% of the population is from the Wexford end with 42% from Wicklow. Currently there are no incumbent TDs in the area, but the projection here is less intriguing than you might think.

Essentially, we will see seats projected to be lost in the two old constituencies shunted here – the Fianna Fáil seat in Wicklow and the Fine Gael seat in Wexford. However, these are likely to have different TDs. I suspect Michael D’Arcy will be the candidate for Fine Gael, and Malcolm Byrne the one for Fianna Fáil. The only potential wrinkle here is that both are Wexford-based, in or near Gorey. This leaves the Wicklow side, and Arklow, without a natural candidate. So I wouldn’t write off the potential of someone emerging here as the “Wicklow Candidate”.

Regardless, the model sees FF and FG taking seats, as well as Sinn Féin. SF don’t have an immediate candidate – they have no councillors in the area – but even on 2020 votes they were the strongest party across the EDs that make up this constituency. It’s difficult to see any of the big three getting in a second candidate, or anyone else challenging here, but this is a new area with no current representation in the Dáil, so that does leave the door open for something to change the dynamics here.