Dún Laoghaire

Profile

Province: Dublin

Seats: 4

Current TDs: 1 FG, 1 PBP, 1 FF, 1 GP

Projection: 3 FG, 1 PBP

Gains

FG +2

Losses

FF -1
GP -1

Analysis

January 2021

Dún Laoghaire hasn’t had three Fine Gael TDs since 1982, which given the constituency’s profile, surprised me too. That looks like it could change here, and relatively easily. FG could win more than half the total votes here.

It’s also worth noting that many of the other parties here are in disarray, on a polling basis at least. The Green decline will cost Ossian Smyth his seat. FF’s current incumbent got less FPV than FG’s third candidate did in 2020, and his party’s poll numbers are tanking. SF, while hitting a high water-mark in a constituency that they are historically weak in, are still some distance off a seat and aren’t showing improvement in their Dublin poll numbers.

PBP’s Richard Boyd Barrett should emerge with the other seat, as his numbers are strong enough to offset his party’s poor polling, and he’s not vulnerable to an SF surplus squeeze like many of his colleagues are, because SF are nowhere near getting a surplus here.

Currently its tough to see any other alternatives emerging under the model, unless there is a significant movement in polling.

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