Cavan–Monaghan

Profile

Province: Connacht-Ulster

Seats: 5

Current TDs: 2 FF, 2 SF, 1 FG

Projection: 1 FF, 2 SF, 2 FG

Gains

FG +1

Losses

FF -1

Analysis

January 2021

Cavan-Monaghan seems fairly unremarkable, with the polling movement being from FF to FG being reflected in one seat changing hands. However, there’s a couple of stories lurking under the surface that could bubble up if relatively minor polling shifts occur.

All of these relate to FF, who currently have no path to return both their TDs. If neither retire, however, or if they run three again, the vote split puts both FF seats at risk. Currently, if SF run a third candidate and FF run either two or three, the FF seat’s cushion is dangerously close to the margin of error, and FG are a minor polling shift away from being in the same situation as SF. We are very close to a situation whereby if an FF TD retires, the other will keep their seat, but if neither blink, both could lose out.

Even if this doesn’t come to pass and neither FG nor SF run a third candidate to endanger the FF seat, there’s another wrinkle that becomes relevant if FF run two or three. Aontú are currently substantially distant in the model, but if Ireland Thinks are polling Aontú correctly, and everyone else is underpolling them, Sarah O’Reilly becomes a genuine threat to slip into the final seat.

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