Province: Rest of Leinster
Current TDs: 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF
Projection: 2 FG, 1 SF
FF’s Thomas Byrne is in trouble. He lost his seat to FG in 2011 – where FF lost both their seats – before reclaiming it in 2016. History looks to repeat here, as the FF vote in Meath East is very flaky, and Byrne has proven before that he isn’t a strong enough candidate to buck the trend of his party’s fortunes in election years.
Sinn Féin ought to do well, with another strong left-wing Green candidate leaving the party, leaving a chunk of left votes available to be scooped up, but not enough to make up the gap to FG to bring a second candidate into play. FG are poised to dominate here, and it’s difficult to see any outcome where they don’t take two seats.