Current TDs: 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 IND
Projection: 2 FG, 1 SF
This raised my eyebrows when the model spat it out, but looking at the probable outcomes, it’s a surprisingly robust call given how close the model has been on other constituencies. With polling numbers for independents down massively, Seán Canney looks set to lose his seat regardless of how other things break – although its always hard to be confident in how much these swings will affect individual Independent candidates.
A surging FG should have no problem bringing in an additional TD, and SF look poised to jump ahead of both Canney and FF incumbent Anne Rabbitte. If FF only run Rabbitte, they have a shot, albeit not a massive one, at holding off SF. If they run two they look less able to do so – they barely managed to do so in 2020, which was in a much more pro-FF polling environment.