Current TDs: 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 IND
Projection: 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 IND
The final seat in Clare is super-competitive, and is going to stay that way for a while. Right now things have swung back towards incumbent Independent Michael McNamara, and the model gives him a razor-thin advantage over a second FG candidate, but a second from FF or SF is also plausible. A lot of this is going to come down to transfers – which are the least reliable part of the model. But with that said, if McNamara can get ahead of the second candidates from the big parties on FPV or even within a round or two of counting, he’ll be very well positioned. With FG’s polling continuing to wobble in Munster, things could continue to look better for him, but again, there’s a long way to go here and this final seat could move back and forth quite a bit.
Remember when the Green Party almost won a seat in Clare? And when SF came out of nowhere to take a seat they haven’t held since 1923? The 2020 election feels like ancient history now, and this is a fairly straightforward constituency based on polling.
With that said, it is always tricky to work out how polling swings will impact independents – and numbers for independents have been solidly in the toilet since the election – so I wouldn’t write off Michael McNamara entirely, but things don’t look good for him right now, and FG are posed to leapfrog FF and fill the seat that he’s projected to lose.