Current TDs: 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 IND
Projection: 2 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF
Remember when the Green Party almost won a seat in Clare? And when SF came out of nowhere to take a seat they haven’t held since 1923? The 2020 election feels like ancient history now, and this is a fairly straightforward constituency based on polling.
With that said, it is always tricky to work out how polling swings will impact independents – and numbers for independents have been solidly in the toilet since the election – so I wouldn’t write off Michael McNamara entirely, but things don’t look good for him right now, and FG are posed to leapfrog FF and fill the seat that he’s projected to lose.