Posts and Poll Analysis

September 2021 Projections Update

Seat totals Sinn Féin 59Fine Gael 49Fianna Fáil 29Independents 11Social Democrats 3PBP/Solidarity 3Labour 3Green Party 2Aontú 1R2C 0 Changes since June Sinn Féin +3Fine Gael -3Fianna Fáil -2Independents ncSocial Democrats -2PBP/Solidarity +1Labour +3Green Party ncAontú ncR2C nc Seat Map As politics returns from its summer holidays, we got two polls last weekend – one fromContinue reading “September 2021 Projections Update”

June 2021 Projections Update

Seat totals Sinn Féin 56Fine Gael 52Fianna Fáil 31Independents 11Social Democrats 5Green Party 2PBP/Solidarity 2Aontú 1Labour 0 R2C 0 Changes since April Sinn Féin -1Fine Gael -5Fianna Fáil +4Independents +1Social Democrats ncGreen Party +1PBP/Solidarity ncAontú ncLabour nc R2C nc Seat Map May and June were active months of polling, with 7 polls across the period.Continue reading “June 2021 Projections Update”

Dublin Bay South By-Election Analysis and Projection

Intro I held off on making this post for a while, waiting until all major parties had selected their candidates. Now that process is complete, here’s my guide to, and initial projection for, the Dublin Bay South (DBS) by election. For anyone who isn’t aware, this by-election is due to the resignation of former housingContinue reading “Dublin Bay South By-Election Analysis and Projection”

Applying the Scottish Electoral System to Ireland

Warning: this is a very nerdy post, even by my standards. A couple of weeks ago, Scotland held elections to its devolved parliament in Holyrood. Similarly to Ireland, they use a system of proportional representation, but unlike our PR-STV, they use something called Additional Member System (AMS). This system is called Mixed-Member Proportional Representation (MMP)Continue reading “Applying the Scottish Electoral System to Ireland”

April 2021 Projections and Model Update

Seat totals Sinn Féin 57Fine Gael 57Fianna Fáil 27Independents 10Social Democrats 5PBP/Solidarity 2Green Party 1Aontú 1Labour 0 Changes since March Sinn Féin -5Fine Gael -4Fianna Fáil +6Independents +5Social Democrats -1PBP/Solidarity ncGreen Party ncAontú +1Labour -2 Big changes this month – and I know it seems immediately like some of them are out of line withContinue reading “April 2021 Projections and Model Update”


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