Posts and Poll Analysis

Dublin Bay South By-Election Analysis and Projection

Intro I held off on making this post for a while, waiting until all major parties had selected their candidates. Now that process is complete, here’s my guide to, and initial projection for, the Dublin Bay South (DBS) by election. For anyone who isn’t aware, this by-election is due to the resignation of former housingContinue reading “Dublin Bay South By-Election Analysis and Projection”

Applying the Scottish Electoral System to Ireland

Warning: this is a very nerdy post, even by my standards. A couple of weeks ago, Scotland held elections to its devolved parliament in Holyrood. Similarly to Ireland, they use a system of proportional representation, but unlike our PR-STV, they use something called Additional Member System (AMS). This system is called Mixed-Member Proportional Representation (MMP)Continue reading “Applying the Scottish Electoral System to Ireland”

April 2021 Projections and Model Update

Seat totals Sinn Féin 57Fine Gael 57Fianna Fáil 27Independents 10Social Democrats 5PBP/Solidarity 2Green Party 1Aontú 1Labour 0 Changes since March Sinn Féin -5Fine Gael -4Fianna Fáil +6Independents +5Social Democrats -1PBP/Solidarity ncGreen Party ncAontú +1Labour -2 Big changes this month – and I know it seems immediately like some of them are out of line withContinue reading “April 2021 Projections and Model Update”

March 2021 Projections Update

Seat totals Sinn Féin 62Fine Gael 61Fianna Fáil 21Independents 5Social Democrats 6Labour 2PBP/Solidarity 2Green Party 1 Changes since Februrary Sinn Féin -1Fine Gael ncFianna Fáil ncIndependents ncSocial Democrats +1Labour ncPBP/Solidarity ncGreen Party nc There were two polls in March, one from Ireland Thinks, and one from Red C. Unfortunately, despite doing cool things like decimalContinue reading “March 2021 Projections Update”

February 2021 Projections Update

Seat totals Sinn Féin 63Fine Gael 61Fianna Fáil 21Independents 5Social Democrats 5Labour 2PBP/Solidarity 2Green Party 1 Changes Since January Sinn Féin +1Fine Gael -2Fianna Fáil ncIndependents ncSocial Democrats +3Labour ncPBP/Solidarity +1Green Party -3 Sinn Féin and Fine Gael are close, nationally, on the RPA. FG are at 29.2% and SF are at 27.1%. While FGContinue reading “February 2021 Projections Update”

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