Current TDs: 2 FF, 1 FG
Projection: 2 FG, 1 SF
Ah yes, this one.
This is the only county where I have modelled an additional party running to 2020. I’m not sure why they didn’t – Liadh Ní Riada’s political judgement once again proving questionable – as they’d have likely taken a seat. With SF polling numbers in Muster what they are, applied here in line with provincial averages, they will comfortably take a seat.
This leaves three incumbents scrapping for two seats, and polling swings put FG notably ahead of FF here. It looks increasingly likely that FF will not win a seat unless one of the Moynihans retires. One candidate without a running mate would make it fairly easily, but going in against two FG candidates with two of their own leaves the most likely outcome as FG taking both seats.
The SDs were surprisingly competitive here 2020, but the presence of an SF candidate eliminates any chance they have of building on this.