Cork North-West

Profile

Province: Munster

Seats: 3

Current TDs: 2 FF, 1 FG

Projection: 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF

Analysis

June 2021

The second FG seat in CNW was always slightly questionable, premised as it was on FF running both of their incumbent TDs, which would likely have resulted in neither pulling through. However, with FG flagging in Munster and FF having a good run off polls through May and June, it now looks like FF should be favoured to get one of their candidates over the line regardless, though it is still very tight. Bear in mind that if one of them retires, the other will be a sure bet to keep the seat as a single candidate.

January 2021

Ah yes, this one.

This is the only county where I have modelled an additional party running to 2020. I’m not sure why they didn’t – Liadh Ní Riada’s political judgement once again proving questionable – as they’d have likely taken a seat. With SF polling numbers in Muster what they are, applied here in line with provincial averages, they will comfortably take a seat.

This leaves three incumbents scrapping for two seats, and polling swings put FG notably ahead of FF here. It looks increasingly likely that FF will not win a seat unless one of the Moynihans retires. One candidate without a running mate would make it fairly easily, but going in against two FG candidates with two of their own leaves the most likely outcome as FG taking both seats.

The SDs were surprisingly competitive here 2020, but the presence of an SF candidate eliminates any chance they have of building on this.