Current TDs: 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF
Projection: 1 FF, 1 FG, 2 SF
Fianna Fáil have never had less than two TDs in Cork South-Central. The left has never had more than one – even when it had five seats. 2020 was the closest this has ever been to changing, with the Greens falling a couple of points short of the second FF seat. Between a polling decline and the departure of a strong candidate from the party, the GP will be nowhere in this constituency next time, and SF are in a comfortable position to be the ones to finally break the trend.
SF’s Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire blew up in 2020, almost doubling his FPV from 2016, where he had become the constituency’s first ever SF TD. He should be able to comfortably bring in a running-mate at the expense of one of the high profile FF TDs; I wouldn’t be shocked to see Taoiseach Micheál Martin retire before the next election.
FG’s Simon Coveney will keep his seat with absolute ease, but it doesn’t seem likely that his party can provide a running-mate with sufficient profile to beat a second SF candidate, or knock out FF entirely.