Current TDs: 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF, 2 IND
Projection: 2 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 IND
This was another one flagged last month as a potential mover, and a small downward shift in the FG vote has changed the final seat to FF, although this is by a very small margin. The FF vote has dropped, but the FG vote has dropped more and is now just a touch behind the threshold where they can expect to comfortably bring in two candidates. This remains far from definite; an improved geographic division of the constituency could well bring home a second FG candidate, but for now, FF have the slightest of edges. This, of course, assumes FF only run Norma Foley – given the weak FF to FF transfer rate in Kerry, a running mate may be a mistake, though whether or not Foley can pull in first preferences in the south and west of the county (something the model, by necessity, assumes she can do) remains to be seen.
The Independent numbers are rising as well, it’s worth noting, so Danny Healy-Rae is very much in the running. Given that the Healy-Raes have been masterful at carving up the vote in Kerry in the past, we are very much approaching the area where Michael might have enough of a cushion to reduce his own vote to give Danny a boost. If this keeps up, the final seat is going to be very, very close.
This is another one where I have instinctive questions about the model output, but it makes sense within the paradigm of polling movement in Munster – FG and SF rising, FF and Independents falling. IND Michael Healy-Rae is safe, as are FG and SF incumbents Brendan Griffin and Pa Daly. Polling shows that Daly can comfortably bring in a running mate, and Griffin is favoured to as well, although that is less of a sure thing.
So where is Danny Healy-Rae (IND) in all of this? In trouble, that’s where he is. Right now him and FF incumbent Norma Foley look set to struggle, though they aren’t a huge distance off the 2nd projected FG seat. Generally, and especially recently, Kerry has been more Independent-friendly than most places so I would hesitate to write them off, and FF do have a decent base here. But right now it’s looking tough for both of them.