Profile
Province: Munster
Seats: 4
Current TDs: 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 GP
Projection: 2 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG
Gains
SF +1
Losses
GP -1
Analysis
January 2021
Is there a TD in the current Dáil who has spent more time fighting with their own constituents on Twitter than the Green Party’s Brian Leddin? In that sense, he has stepped up to fill the void left when Noel Rock (FG) lost his seat in DNW. This strategy appears to be working out about as well for him as it did for Rock.
Leddin’s seat, always tenuous, is gone in the current polling environment, indeed the model indicates he’ll struggle to outpoll Labour, the SDs or even a moderately strong Independent like Frankie Daly. However, it is SF who are best positioned to take advantage; Maurice Quinlivan should be easily able to bring in a running-mate.
FF’s Willie O’Dea remains teflon, and Kieran O’Donnell of FG should have no problems holding his position, though there isn’t quite enough FG support at the moment for them to have a shot at a second seat.
Irish Election Projections 