Current TDs: 1 SF, 1 FG, 1 GP, 1 SD
Projection: 2 SF, 1 FG, 1 SD
There’s not a ton interesting here – this was an inevitable outcome of the Green polling numbers in Dublin, really. FPV projections still have Neasa Hourigan (GP) ahead of Gary Gannon (SD) by a razor thin margin, but similar to DBN, transfers make the difference. As with DBN I would of course sound a note of restraint when it comes to transfers, but the FPV gap here is so small that I’m more comfortable with this call. It’s worth noting as well that Fianna Fáil aren’t a mile behind either candidate, but they are even less transfer friendly than either, so will need to pull ahead on FPV to be truly competitive. Given their current numbers in Dublin, this doesn’t look particularly likely.
Okay, like, I get that Sinn Féin were caught completely flat-footed in 2020 by their own electoral success, but not running two in Dublin Central was frankly irresponsible. Mary Lou McDonald got 24% in 2016, Maureen O’Sullivan had retired, and the constituency has an engaged and actively voting working-class voter base. They won’t be making the same mistake again, and will stroll into two seats.
Paschal Donohue will cruise home for FG, but after that it gets interesting. Donohue benefitted from a weak running-mate in 2020, allowing him to stay ahead in a close race for the seats behind McDonald. This time he’s in a much better spot, and there’s potential for him to bring in a running-mate if a few things break FG’s way.
Specifically, this requires the continued polling struggles of the Green Party and the Social Democrats. One of Neasa Hourigan and Gary Gannon is going to lose out to SF, but a continued FG surge could see the other also in trouble, especially with less SF surplus transfers to help them out. Hourigan’s numbers are currently holding up better than Gannon’s, so the model thinks it more likely that the SD will lose out but with the Greens polling in steep decline, this could well change in the near future.
It’s worth noting that the GP and SD candidates here have repeatedly clashed with their own party’s leadership and shown a more independent minded streak than some of their colleagues. It remains to be seen whether or not this will help them buck their parties’ trends, but the model cannot, at this stage, factor that in.
Short of a meme return for Bertie Ahern and his lifelong commitment to ruining Mary Fitzpatrick’s career, Fianna Fáil aren’t coming close to a seat here.