Province: Rest of Leinster
Seats: 4 (Ceann Comhairle (FF) returned automatically)
Current TDs: 1 FF (incl. CC), 1 SF, 1 FG, 1 IND
Projection: 2 FF (incl. CC), 1 SF, 1 FG
Other than Carlow-Kilkenny, this is the only constituency set to return two FF TDs, but that’s due to the automatic return of the Ceann Comhairle, Seán Ó Fearghaíl, which effectively renders this a three seater for the upcoming election.
If FF run one candidate they should be able to take the seat away from Cathal Berry (IND); if they run two like they did in 2020, they will have a harder time of it.
If the Ceann Comhairle retires, the re-opened fourth seat becomes a very close race between Berry, a second FG candidate and Labour’s Mark Wall, if he runs again. Currently the model favours a second seat for FG under this circumstance.