Current TDs: 1 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 LAB
Projection: 2 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF
SF’s numbers in Munster are, in general, through the roof, and if that holds they’ll comfortably have two seats in Cork East. FG’s seat looks rock-solid regardless of their strategy, and FF are comfortable as long as they only run one candidate.
Labour’s Sean Sherlock is currently projected to lose a seat he’s held through some rough years for his party, but I should emphasise that this is very close between himself and FF – if FF run two candidates here, which they really shouldn’t, the model will likely flip and favour Sherlock for the final seat over either FF candidate.