Province: Rest of Leinster
Current TDs: 1 FG, 1 SF, 2 FF
Projection: 2 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF
Longford-Westmeath is one of the more geographically divided constituencies in Ireland; the two counties involved vote heavily local, to the point where the strategy for the bigger parties has invariably been to run a Longford candidate and a Westmeath candidate. This doesn’t even factor in that on top of that there are the normal local divides within each county, but the bigger split here is stark.
SF’s seat is safe, as is FG’s, and one FF seat. FG are on course have enough support to get a second candidate over the line ahead of the second FFer, likely making the swap at the Longford end of the constituency. With that said, the numbers are still close and that could change – especially if SF are able to drive gains outside of Sorca Clarke’s strongholds around Mullingar.