Current TDs: 2 FG, 1 GP
Projection: 2 FG, 1 GP
This shouldn’t come as a huge surprise with the Greens bouncing up in the polls, and it looks like Catherine Martin will be able to keep her seat. This was always a tough one for Sinn Féin, and them previously being favoured here by the model was more a reflection on Green and FF weakness than their own growth. If the GP can sustain their polling bounce, they should hold this handily enough, but if they slip back towards the numbers they were seeing earlier on, the final seat could end up being wide open again.
This is a great look for Sinn Féin. Rathdown is probably one of the toughest constituencies for them in the country, but the decline in the Green Party’s fortunes has well and truly opened the door to the third seat here. FF don’t look competitive either. The caveat is, of course, what happens if FG run three? Winning all the seats in Rathdown isn’t out of the question, if they can find the candidates to pull it off, especially with Shane Ross out of the picture and a lot of FG gene-pool votes looking for a home to go to.
However, right now, SF have the edge here, and the Greens need a serious reversal in polling trends if they are to defend this seat in what has traditionally been one of their stronger areas. Catherine Martin did pull off a surprise here in 2016 and was dominant in 2020, so it’s possible that she can hold on, but the numbers right now do not look positive, with her trailing both SF and a putative 3rd Fine Gaeler.
No change is projected in Rathdown at this point, with two FG candidates locked in and the GP’s Catherine Martin holding on. With that said, the GP vote is looking well down and if that trend continues, this could get spicy.
A continued slip in the Green vote would leave Martin in a fight for the final seat with Sinn Féin, Fianna Fáil and possibly even a theoretical third FG candidate. At that point, SF would be favoured, with FF the longest shot. There’s not a lot up for grabs here right now, but keep an eye on this one, as if current trends continue, it could end up wide open for that third seat.