Cork North-Central

Profile

Province: Munster

Seats: 4

Current TDs: 1 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 PBP

Projection: 2 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF

Gains

SF +1

Losses

PBP -1

Analysis

January 2021

The left in general, but especially PBP, have a major problem facing them going into the next election. SF ate most of the left’s FPV in 2020, leaving many left-wing TDs almost entirely reliant on SF surplus transfers to keep their seats. The problem here is, what happens when SF run two candidates instead of one, and that surplus transfer disappears?

This is especially relevant in an environment where PBP are polling poorly, although high profile TDs like Mick Barry may ultimately prove more resilient than the polling indicates. However, right now a second SF candidate – a no brainer move from SF – leaves him short of where he needs to be.

FG are, in theory, approaching the numbers needed to push a second candidate ahead of FF incumbent Pádraig O’Sullivan, however they haven’t managed to successfully pull off a two-candidate strategy in Cork North-Central since 1997, even in very positive polling environments. While there is a small chance of an FG gain and an FF loss, it doesn’t look particularly likely right now.

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