Seat totals Sinn Féin 63Fine Gael 61Fianna Fáil 21Independents 5Social Democrats 5Labour 2PBP/Solidarity 2Green Party 1 Changes Since January Sinn Féin +1Fine Gael -2Fianna Fáil ncIndependents ncSocial Democrats +3Labour ncPBP/Solidarity +1Green Party -3 Sinn Féin and Fine Gael are close, nationally, on the RPA. FG are at 29.2% and SF are at 27.1%. While FGContinue reading “February 2021 Projections Update”
Author Archives: Irish Election Projections
The Green Wave’s Ebb
In the last few years, fueled by a series of high-profile civil society campaigns on the climate crisis, several countries across Europe experienced a surge in support for Green political parties. Ireland was among those. The party, which had clawed itself back from the dead in 2016, suddenly found a renewed movement behind it, buoyedContinue reading “The Green Wave’s Ebb”
Mapping the Sinn Féin Surge
One of the most obviously significant outputs of the projection model is the increase in seats for Sinn Féin. The most recent full modelling shows an increase in FPV of 4.8%, but a gain of 25 seats. This gap is due mostly to “missed” seats in the 2020 General Election, where SF ran less candidatesContinue reading “Mapping the Sinn Féin Surge”
GE 2020 Baselining – Provincial Analysis
My apologies if you were expecting something spicy about the seats in this update – this one’s about modelling and methodology. But I do think it’s interesting, and hopefully some of you will too. A story here: this was something I actually did work on for the 2020 general election (as well as GE 2016Continue reading “GE 2020 Baselining – Provincial Analysis”
Analysis of Red C Poll for 31st Jan 2021
Published 31st January 2021 So two days after site launch, and we have our first national poll, from Red C. The headline figures aren’t particularly interesting on first glance, although positive for Independents and the Social Democrats, who have now hit 5% in three of the last four national polls. A fuss has been madeContinue reading “Analysis of Red C Poll for 31st Jan 2021”
Irish Election Projections 