Author Archives: Irish Election Projections

Hello. It’s been a while. Barring one set of projections – that I have as yet been unable to find the time to do a full post for – I know things have been quiet here. This is a combination of background work that has taken longer than anticipated, and also been influenced by eventsContinue reading “2025 Presidential Election”

Final Projection Fianna Fáil 48Sinn Féin 41Fine Gael 37Independents 21Social Democrats 6Labour 5Independent Ireland 5PBP/Solidarity 4Aontú 4Green Party 1100% Redress 0Right2Change 1Independents4Change 1 Actual Results (difference) Fianna Fáil 48 (0)Sinn Féin 39 (-2) Fine Gael 38 (+1)Independents 16 (-5)Social Democrats 11 (+5)Labour 11 (+6)Independent Ireland 4 (-1)PBP/Solidarity 3 (-1)Aontú 2 (-2)Green Party 1 (0)100% RedressContinue reading “Post-General Election 2024 Model Analysis”

Seat totals Fianna Fáil 48Sinn Féin 41Fine Gael 37Independents 21Social Democrats 6Labour 5Independent Ireland 5PBP/Solidarity 4Aontú 4Green Party 1Right2Change 1Independents4Change 1Workers & Unemployed 0 Changes since Nov 2nd 2024 Fianna Fáil +5Sinn Féin +8Fine Gael -11Independents ncSocial Democrats ncLabour ncIndependent Ireland ncPBP/Solidarity -2Aontú +2Green Party ncRight2Change ncIndependents4Change -1Workers & Unemployed -1 Seat Map Hello. PollingContinue reading “Final Pre-Election Projection for 2024”

Seat totals Fine Gael 48Fianna Fáil 43Sinn Féin 33Independents 21Social Democrats 6PBP/Solidarity 6Labour 5Independent Ireland 5Aontú 2Independents4Change 2Green Party 1Right2Change 1Workers & Unemployed 1 Changes since September 2024 Fine Gael ncFianna Fáil -3Sinn Féin -5Independents +2Social Democrats ncPBP/Solidarity ncLabour +2Independent Ireland +1Aontú +1Independents4Change +1Green Party ncRight2Change ncWorkers & Unemployed +1 Seat Map It’s getting realContinue reading “Early November/October 2024 Projections Update”

Seat totals Fine Gael 48Fianna Fáil 46Sinn Féin 38Independents 19Social Democrats 6PBP/Solidarity 6Independent Ireland 4Labour 3Green Party 1Aontú 1Right2Change 1Independents4Change 1 Changes since May 2024 Fine Gael +9Fianna Fáil +6Sinn Féin -21Independents +1Social Democrats -3PBP/Solidarity +2Independent Ireland +2Labour +3Green Party ncAontú ncRight2Change ncIndependents4Change +1 Seat Map It’s been a long summer without an update, andContinue reading “September 2024 Projections Update”

With the usual general election piece and the local elections covered this month, it’s time to turn attention towards the European election, which will be held the day after this post is published. This has been a strange, chaotic campaign marked by an extremely high number of candidates, and then even more bizarre output fromContinue reading “European Election 2024”

We are less than week out from the local and European elections, and things are changing rapidly. The campaign period has brought a significant change in polling – while the overall trends have remained the same, the rate of change has become a lot sharper. Sinn Féin’s position is declining rapidly, with all three majorContinue reading “Benchmarking the Local Elections”

Seat totals Sinn Féin 59Fianna Fáil 40Fine Gael 38Independents 18Social Democrats 9PBP/Solidarity 4Independent Ireland 2Green Party 1Aontú 1Right2Change 1Labour 0 Changes since Feb 2024 Sinn Féin -1Fianna Fáil +1Fine Gael +1Independents +1Social Democrats +1PBP/Solidarity ncIndependent Ireland ncGreen Party -2Aontú ncRight2Change ncLabour -1 Seat Map Hello all, it’s nice to be back, and we’ve multiple electionsContinue reading “May 2024 Projections Update”

This June, there will be two elections in Ireland – one for the local authorities, and one for the European Parliament. The modelling I’m doing is purely General Election based, so is of relatively minimal utility for either, but we can still take a look at the polls and see if they give us anyContinue reading “European Election Poll April 2024”

No monthly projections in March, as we only have one poll with regional breakdowns since February, and running the model off of one poll is counter to one of the fundamental principles of this project. I was originally planning to use this month to publish the first set of a study of the Pobal DeprivationContinue reading “Simon Harris and the Impact of Party Leader Changes on Polling”