March 2021 Projections Update

Seat totals Sinn Féin 62Fine Gael 61Fianna Fáil 21Independents 5Social Democrats 6Labour 2PBP/Solidarity 2Green Party 1 Changes since Februrary Sinn Féin -1Fine Gael ncFianna Fáil ncIndependents ncSocial Democrats +1Labour ncPBP/Solidarity ncGreen Party nc There were two polls in March, one from Ireland Thinks, and one from Red C. Unfortunately, despite doing cool things like decimalContinue reading “March 2021 Projections Update”

Keeping It In the Family

There’s been no polling published this month so far, so I thought I’d do something a little different this week, and take a look at Irish political families. I don’t know enough about other countries to say how widespread this is, but Ireland is notorious for its politics being full of people connected by familyContinue reading “Keeping It In the Family”

Gender and Transfers in GE2020

I wasn’t originally intending on doing something like this, but it was International Womens Day this week and it got me thinking about gender bias in politics. Previous studies of the 2016 and 2002 General Elections have indicated that there’s no significant gender bias when it comes to first preference votes – although there’s aContinue reading “Gender and Transfers in GE2020”

February 2021 Projections Update

Seat totals Sinn Féin 63Fine Gael 61Fianna Fáil 21Independents 5Social Democrats 5Labour 2PBP/Solidarity 2Green Party 1 Changes Since January Sinn Féin +1Fine Gael -2Fianna Fáil ncIndependents ncSocial Democrats +3Labour ncPBP/Solidarity +1Green Party -3 Sinn Féin and Fine Gael are close, nationally, on the RPA. FG are at 29.2% and SF are at 27.1%. While FGContinue reading “February 2021 Projections Update”

The Green Wave’s Ebb

In the last few years, fueled by a series of high-profile civil society campaigns on the climate crisis, several countries across Europe experienced a surge in support for Green political parties. Ireland was among those. The party, which had clawed itself back from the dead in 2016, suddenly found a renewed movement behind it, buoyedContinue reading “The Green Wave’s Ebb”

Mapping the Sinn Féin Surge

One of the most obviously significant outputs of the projection model is the increase in seats for Sinn Féin. The most recent full modelling shows an increase in FPV of 4.8%, but a gain of 25 seats. This gap is due mostly to “missed” seats in the 2020 General Election, where SF ran less candidatesContinue reading “Mapping the Sinn Féin Surge”

GE 2020 Baselining – Provincial Analysis

My apologies if you were expecting something spicy about the seats in this update – this one’s about modelling and methodology. But I do think it’s interesting, and hopefully some of you will too. A story here: this was something I actually did work on for the 2020 general election (as well as GE 2016Continue reading “GE 2020 Baselining – Provincial Analysis”

Analysis of Red C Poll for 31st Jan 2021

Published 31st January 2021 So two days after site launch, and we have our first national poll, from Red C. The headline figures aren’t particularly interesting on first glance, although positive for Independents and the Social Democrats, who have now hit 5% in three of the last four national polls. A fuss has been madeContinue reading “Analysis of Red C Poll for 31st Jan 2021”