April 2021 Projections and Model Update

Seat totals Sinn Féin 57Fine Gael 57Fianna Fáil 27Independents 10Social Democrats 5PBP/Solidarity 2Green Party 1Aontú 1Labour 0 Changes since March Sinn Féin -5Fine Gael -4Fianna Fáil +6Independents +5Social Democrats -1PBP/Solidarity ncGreen Party ncAontú +1Labour -2 Big changes this month – and I know it seems immediately like some of them are out of line withContinue reading “April 2021 Projections and Model Update”

2021 Seanad By-Election Possibilties

I have very deliberately chosen not to refer to this as any kind of projection or prediction, because frankly, given how Seanad by-elections function (and “function” is a very generous term) it’s not really possible to do so. If you’re a normal human being with hobbies and friends and so on you might not knowContinue reading “2021 Seanad By-Election Possibilties”

The Impact of ‘Vote Left Transfer Left’ in GE2020

If you were on Twitter at all in the run up to the 2020 General Election, you probably saw the hashtag #VoteLeftTransferLeft, a rallying cry to get those who voted for left-wing candidates to continue their preferences down the ballot paper for other left-wing candidates. The call was promoted by a number of high profileContinue reading “The Impact of ‘Vote Left Transfer Left’ in GE2020”

March 2021 Projections Update

Seat totals Sinn Féin 62Fine Gael 61Fianna Fáil 21Independents 5Social Democrats 6Labour 2PBP/Solidarity 2Green Party 1 Changes since Februrary Sinn Féin -1Fine Gael ncFianna Fáil ncIndependents ncSocial Democrats +1Labour ncPBP/Solidarity ncGreen Party nc There were two polls in March, one from Ireland Thinks, and one from Red C. Unfortunately, despite doing cool things like decimalContinue reading “March 2021 Projections Update”

Keeping It In the Family

There’s been no polling published this month so far, so I thought I’d do something a little different this week, and take a look at Irish political families. I don’t know enough about other countries to say how widespread this is, but Ireland is notorious for its politics being full of people connected by familyContinue reading “Keeping It In the Family”

Gender and Transfers in GE2020

I wasn’t originally intending on doing something like this, but it was International Womens Day this week and it got me thinking about gender bias in politics. Previous studies of the 2016 and 2002 General Elections have indicated that there’s no significant gender bias when it comes to first preference votes – although there’s aContinue reading “Gender and Transfers in GE2020”

February 2021 Projections Update

Seat totals Sinn Féin 63Fine Gael 61Fianna Fáil 21Independents 5Social Democrats 5Labour 2PBP/Solidarity 2Green Party 1 Changes Since January Sinn Féin +1Fine Gael -2Fianna Fáil ncIndependents ncSocial Democrats +3Labour ncPBP/Solidarity +1Green Party -3 Sinn Féin and Fine Gael are close, nationally, on the RPA. FG are at 29.2% and SF are at 27.1%. While FGContinue reading “February 2021 Projections Update”

The Green Wave’s Ebb

In the last few years, fueled by a series of high-profile civil society campaigns on the climate crisis, several countries across Europe experienced a surge in support for Green political parties. Ireland was among those. The party, which had clawed itself back from the dead in 2016, suddenly found a renewed movement behind it, buoyedContinue reading “The Green Wave’s Ebb”

Mapping the Sinn Féin Surge

One of the most obviously significant outputs of the projection model is the increase in seats for Sinn Féin. The most recent full modelling shows an increase in FPV of 4.8%, but a gain of 25 seats. This gap is due mostly to “missed” seats in the 2020 General Election, where SF ran less candidatesContinue reading “Mapping the Sinn Féin Surge”

GE 2020 Baselining – Provincial Analysis

My apologies if you were expecting something spicy about the seats in this update – this one’s about modelling and methodology. But I do think it’s interesting, and hopefully some of you will too. A story here: this was something I actually did work on for the 2020 general election (as well as GE 2016Continue reading “GE 2020 Baselining – Provincial Analysis”