Party Polling by Social Class

In my most recent poll analysis I picked up on some comments from the Taoiseach regarding Sinn Féin’s understanding of the working class, and how the polling among that cohort (or the closest polling analogue for that cohort) doesn’t reflect his views on the matter. Sinn Féin are comfortably ahead of Fianna Fáil, even thoughContinue reading “Party Polling by Social Class”

January 2022 Projections Update

Seat totals Sinn Féin 63Fine Gael 40Fianna Fáil 34Independents 8Social Democrats 5Green Party 3PBP/Solidarity 3Labour 3Aontú 1R2C 0 Changes since December Sinn Féin ncFine Gael ncFianna Fáil -1Independents ncSocial Democrats ncGreen Party ncPBP/Solidarity ncLabour +1Aontú ncR2C nc Seat Map Three polls again this month, with Ireland Thinks joining Red C and B&A, but again notContinue reading “January 2022 Projections Update”

December 2021 Projections Update

Seat totals Sinn Féin 63Fine Gael 40Fianna Fáil 35Independents 8Social Democrats 5Green Party 3PBP/Solidarity 3Labour 2Aontú 1R2C 0 Changes since November Sinn Féin +2Fine Gael -2Fianna Fáil +1Independents ncSocial Democrats ncGreen Party -1PBP/Solidarity ncLabour ncAontú ncR2C nc Seat Map Three polls this month, one from each of B&A and IPSOS/MRBI with regional breakdowns, and oneContinue reading “December 2021 Projections Update”

November 2021 Projections Update

Seat totals Sinn Féin 61Fine Gael 42Fianna Fáil 34Independents 8Social Democrats 5Green Party 4PBP/Solidarity 3Labour 2Aontú 1R2C 0 Changes since October Sinn Féin +1Fine Gael -1Fianna Fáil +3Independents -1Social Democrats ncGreen Party +1PBP/Solidarity -1Labour -2Aontú ncR2C nc Seat Map Three polls in November, one from each of B&A and Red C with regional breakdowns, andContinue reading “November 2021 Projections Update”

October 2021 Projections Update

Seat totals Sinn Féin 60Fine Gael 43Fianna Fáil 31Independents 9Social Democrats 5PBP/Solidarity 4Labour 4Green Party 3Aontú 1R2C 0 Changes since September Sinn Féin +1Fine Gael -6Fianna Fáil +2Independents -2Social Democrats +2PBP/Solidarity +1Labour +1Green Party +1Aontú ncR2C nc Seat Map We’ve had a good few polls in October, and following on from September, we’re seeing aContinue reading “October 2021 Projections Update”

September 2021 Projections Update

Seat totals Sinn Féin 59Fine Gael 49Fianna Fáil 29Independents 11Social Democrats 3PBP/Solidarity 3Labour 3Green Party 2Aontú 1R2C 0 Changes since July Sinn Féin +3Fine Gael -3Fianna Fáil -2Independents ncSocial Democrats -2PBP/Solidarity +1Labour +3Green Party ncAontú ncR2C nc Seat Map As politics returns from its summer holidays, we got two polls last weekend – one fromContinue reading “September 2021 Projections Update”

June 2021 Projections Update

Seat totals Sinn Féin 56Fine Gael 52Fianna Fáil 31Independents 11Social Democrats 5Green Party 2PBP/Solidarity 2Aontú 1Labour 0 R2C 0 Changes since April Sinn Féin -1Fine Gael -5Fianna Fáil +4Independents +1Social Democrats ncGreen Party +1PBP/Solidarity ncAontú ncLabour nc R2C nc Seat Map May and June were active months of polling, with 7 polls across the period.Continue reading “June 2021 Projections Update”

THAT Dublin Bay South By-Election Poll

Christ. Where to begin. A couple of weeks ago I had a look at the Dublin Bay South by-election here, and concluded the following: “This, until someone polls the constituency directly and demonstrates a huge shift, remains FG’s to lose. Their generic “cushion” of nearly 30 points will likely not manifest at anywhere near thatContinue reading “THAT Dublin Bay South By-Election Poll”

Dublin Bay South By-Election Analysis and Projection

Intro I held off on making this post for a while, waiting until all major parties had selected their candidates. Now that process is complete, here’s my guide to, and initial projection for, the Dublin Bay South (DBS) by election. For anyone who isn’t aware, this by-election is due to the resignation of former housingContinue reading “Dublin Bay South By-Election Analysis and Projection”