Author Archives: Irish Election Projections

Seat totals Sinn Féin 56Fine Gael 52Fianna Fáil 31Independents 11Social Democrats 5Green Party 2PBP/Solidarity 2Aontú 1Labour 0 R2C 0 Changes since April Sinn Féin -1Fine Gael -5Fianna Fáil +4Independents +1Social Democrats ncGreen Party +1PBP/Solidarity ncAontú ncLabour nc R2C nc Seat Map May and June were active months of polling, with 7 polls across the period.Continue reading “June 2021 Projections Update”

Christ. Where to begin. A couple of weeks ago I had a look at the Dublin Bay South by-election here, and concluded the following: “This, until someone polls the constituency directly and demonstrates a huge shift, remains FG’s to lose. Their generic “cushion” of nearly 30 points will likely not manifest at anywhere near thatContinue reading “THAT Dublin Bay South By-Election Poll”

Intro I held off on making this post for a while, waiting until all major parties had selected their candidates. Now that process is complete, here’s my guide to, and initial projection for, the Dublin Bay South (DBS) by election. For anyone who isn’t aware, this by-election is due to the resignation of former housingContinue reading “Dublin Bay South By-Election Analysis and Projection”

I’m not doing a projections update this month as all we have to go on from May is a B&A poll that feels like an outlier – I will wait until we have another couple of polls and do an update in June. However, while its headline figures were odd, the poll had some otherContinue reading “Party Leader Approval Ratings Analysis”

Warning: this is a very nerdy post, even by my standards. A couple of weeks ago, Scotland held elections to its devolved parliament in Holyrood. Similarly to Ireland, they use a system of proportional representation, but unlike our PR-STV, they use something called Additional Member System (AMS). This system is called Mixed-Member Proportional Representation (MMP)Continue reading “Applying the Scottish Electoral System to Ireland”

Seat totals Sinn Féin 57Fine Gael 57Fianna Fáil 27Independents 10Social Democrats 5PBP/Solidarity 2Green Party 1Aontú 1Labour 0 Changes since March Sinn Féin -5Fine Gael -4Fianna Fáil +6Independents +5Social Democrats -1PBP/Solidarity ncGreen Party ncAontú +1Labour -2 Big changes this month – and I know it seems immediately like some of them are out of line withContinue reading “April 2021 Projections and Model Update”

I have very deliberately chosen not to refer to this as any kind of projection or prediction, because frankly, given how Seanad by-elections function (and “function” is a very generous term) it’s not really possible to do so. If you’re a normal human being with hobbies and friends and so on you might not knowContinue reading “2021 Seanad By-Election Possibilties”

If you were on Twitter at all in the run up to the 2020 General Election, you probably saw the hashtag #VoteLeftTransferLeft, a rallying cry to get those who voted for left-wing candidates to continue their preferences down the ballot paper for other left-wing candidates. The call was promoted by a number of high profileContinue reading “The Impact of ‘Vote Left Transfer Left’ in GE2020”

Seat totals Sinn Féin 62Fine Gael 61Fianna Fáil 21Independents 5Social Democrats 6Labour 2PBP/Solidarity 2Green Party 1 Changes since Februrary Sinn Féin -1Fine Gael ncFianna Fáil ncIndependents ncSocial Democrats +1Labour ncPBP/Solidarity ncGreen Party nc There were two polls in March, one from Ireland Thinks, and one from Red C. Unfortunately, despite doing cool things like decimalContinue reading “March 2021 Projections Update”

There’s been no polling published this month so far, so I thought I’d do something a little different this week, and take a look at Irish political families. I don’t know enough about other countries to say how widespread this is, but Ireland is notorious for its politics being full of people connected by familyContinue reading “Keeping It In the Family”