Author Archives: Irish Election Projections

Seat totals Sinn Féin 60Fianna Fáil 39Fine Gael 38Independents 17Social Democrats 8PBP/Solidarity 4Green Party 3Independent Ireland 2Labour 1Aontú 1Right2Change 1 Changes since January 2024 Sinn Féin -1Fianna Fáil -2Fine Gael +1Independents +1Social Democrats +1PBP/Solidarity +1Green Party ncIndependent Ireland ncLabour -1Aontú ncRight2Change nc Seat Map There were three polls in February – from Ireland Thinks, RedCContinue reading “February 2024 Projections Update”

Seat totals Sinn Féin 61Fianna Fáil 41Fine Gael 37Independents 18Social Democrats 7PBP/Solidarity 3Green Party 3Labour 2Aontú 1Right2Change 1 Changes since October 2023 Sinn Féin -4Fianna Fáil +1Fine Gael +1Independents +4Social Democrats +1PBP/Solidarity -3Green Party ncLabour ncAontú ncRight2Change nc Seat Map Since October 2023, we have only had two polls with regional breakdowns, hence the longContinue reading “January 2024 Projections Update”

Good afternoon. It’s been a while, and there’s been no monthly update to the projections since October. Why? I’ll explain below. But as it is, I felt that not posting again before the end of the year would be bad, so here’s a round up of one or two miscellaneous pieces. B&A acquisition and futureContinue reading “Leaked EU Election Poll and Some Other Thoughts”

Seat totals Sinn Féin 65Fianna Fáil 40Fine Gael 36Independents 14Social Democrats 6PBP/Solidarity 6Green Party 3Labour 2Aontú 1Right2Change 1 Changes since Redraw Sinn Féin +1Fianna Fáil -3Fine Gael +2Independents -2Social Democrats ncPBP/Solidarity ncGreen Party +1Labour -1Aontú +1Right2Change +1 Seat Map Since the redraw, there’s been quite a few polls – I won’t list them all thisContinue reading “October 2023 Projections Update”

Well now. The new Electoral Commission published its report with recommendations for new constituency boundaries at the end of August, and since then I have been working to update the seat projection based around the changes. This post is very long due to the number of constituencies to discuss, so I will keep this introContinue reading “Projecting Seats from the Redrawn Constituencies, 2023”

As there’s minimal polling in July and August, I decided to take some time to look into whether or not polling can be useful in terms of projecting local elections. Local elections will take place next year, before the upcoming General Election, so I had a look using a similar methodology to the one IContinue reading “Can Polling Project Local Elections?”

Seat totals Sinn Féin 60Fianna Fáil 36Fine Gael 34Independents 14Social Democrats 6PBP/Solidarity 4Labour 4Green Party 2Aontú 0R2C 0 Changes since May Sinn Féin -1Fianna Fáil +2Fine Gael -3Independents +2Social Democrats ncPBP/Solidarity -1Labour +2Green Party ncAontú -1R2C nc Seat Map There were four polls in May – once again one from Ireland Thinks without breakdowns, plusContinue reading “June 2023 Projections Update”

Seat totals Sinn Féin 61Fine Gael 37Fianna Fáil 34Independents 12Social Democrats 6PBP/Solidarity 5Labour 2Green Party 2Aontú 1R2C 0 Changes since April Sinn Féin +1Fine Gael -1Fianna Fáil -1Independents +1Social Democrats ncPBP/Solidarity ncLabour ncGreen Party ncAontú ncR2C nc Seat Map There were three polls in May – once again one from Ireland Thinks without breakdowns, plusContinue reading “May 2023 Projections Update”

Seat totals Sinn Féin 60Fine Gael 38Fianna Fáil 35Independents 11Social Democrats 6PBP/Solidarity 5Labour 2Green Party 2Aontú 1R2C 0 Changes since March Sinn Féin ncFine Gael +1Fianna Fáil -1Independents ncSocial Democrats +1PBP/Solidarity +1Labour -1Green Party ncAontú ncR2C nc Seat Map There were three polls in April, same as last month – one the Ireland Thinks withoutContinue reading “April 2023 Projections Update”

Seat totals Sinn Féin 60Fine Gael 37Fianna Fáil 36Independents 11Social Democrats 5PBP/Solidarity 5Labour 3Green Party 2Aontú 1R2C 0 Changes since February Sinn Féin -1Fine Gael ncFianna Fáil ncIndependents ncSocial Democrats ncPBP/Solidarity +1Labour ncGreen Party ncAontú ncR2C nc Seat Map There were three polls in March – one the Ireland Thinks poll I discussed last month,Continue reading “March 2023 Projections Update”