October 2023 Projections Update

Seat Map

Since the redraw, there’s been quite a few polls – I won’t list them all this month – but we have had input from B&A, RedC and IPSOS for this post. There’s a lot to discuss below and a lot of movement in seats, so let’s skip the preamble and get right into it.

A couple of brief thoughts to follow, but if you would prefer to skip straight to the seat changes, click here.

The more things change…

The overall theme this year continues to be stability. While there continue to be fluctuations for all parties, it feels like the ranges they move within continue to be set. Fine Gael might be on track for a historically low level of support, and Sinn Féin for a historically high one, but we’ve been in holding pattern for so long that these don’t really feel as significant as they should right now.

And while SF will be – barring something absolutely bizarre developing between now and the election – the biggest party in the Dáil, I am getting more and more the feeling that the current government might be able to endure. Yes, they don’t have a majority in this projection, but the FF-FG-GP alliance is not much different from a left opposition alliance – 79 seats vs 80 seats, and that’s assuming PBP and Labour can and will co-operate.

So barring an SF-FF coalition or confidence and supply (which I still think is the most likely outcome) Independents will hold the balance of power. And the majority of those are right-wing, although of course getting many of Independents into government is going to be more about what patronage can be offered to their constituency than it is about ideology. But I have noticed that FG are talking less like a party preparing for opposition, and the Greens are still convinced they are doing an amazing job and everyone who disagrees is just stupid.

So Fianna Fáil might well have a choice of who they want to go with and thus who the rest of the government is – not one they will necessarily be comfortable making, as both SF and this government carry huge potential downsides for them, but they hold a lot of power if these numbers hold. I still think they will end up going with SF, but I don’t think it’s inevitable anymore that this government falls, even if its constituent parts change a little.

You can’t vote me out, I quit!

It’s been a little while since the last full update, and there’s been a raft of politicians announcing they won’t run for re-election: Charlie Flanagan (FG, Laois), Brendan Howlin (LAB, Wexford), Seán Sherlock (LAB, Cork East), Bríd Smith (PBP, Dublin South-Central) and Marc MacSharry (IND, ex-FF, Sligo-Leitrim). It’s always tough to assess exactly how these will pan out, so take all of this as being less reliable than where incumbents are continuing.

To briefly cover these we’ll start with Flanagan. This is not great for Fine Gael electorally, although he has become something of a embarrassing liability recently with his increasingly reactionary public statements. Isolating Laois, FG were a pretty comfortable third – well ahead of anyone else, but well behind Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil. Combine the movement for SF and FG in Leinster, and the retirement on top of it, and the model thinks SF will get a second seat here, with FG locked out. That said, FG do have a deep enough pool of county councillors (six) to draw on, while SF do not – they have only two, one of whom is the far-right-sympathising Aidan Mullins.

Labour’s two are unquestionably more worrying. Sherlock has basically had his seat eliminated by the redraw, so a retirement isn’t a shock, although this moves Labour’s chances of holding a seat in one of the Cork constituencies from an extreme long shot to basically zero. Howlin’s is more interesting, as Wexford is in better shape for Labour with the north end removed, and they have a natural replacement – popular Wexford town based councillor George Lawlor. I would still expect a drop for Labour here, and right now they are up against it with current polling, but they do still have a shot here, albeit a significantly more difficult one than before.

Bríd Smith’s situation is interesting, and there isn’t a lot of data for how the PBP vote will hold up under these circumstances. Her replacement, Hazel de Nortúin, is a first time councillor in Ballyfermot-Drimnagh (Smith’s former council ward) and put in a strong performance there in 2019. How that will translate into a general election is hard to say and I again expect a drop here, with Sinn Féin and Right2Change benefitting. As of now the fundamental numbers show that PBP should hold the seat, but it’s pretty tight and there’s a lot of ways this can go.

As for MacSharry, this probably makes things more straightforward for FF than it would have been otherwise, but the projections already assumed he wouldn’t run so the difference is minimal. The oly question is whether an ageing Eamon Scanlon returns or they pick one of their many councillors across Sligo or Leitrim – and they do have a former Sligo GAA player and manager there…

A new “Independent” political party

This month, Independent TDs Michael Collins (Cork South-West) and Richard O’Donogue (Limerick County) announced they will set up a new political party called “Independent Ireland”, a name that seems about a hundred or so years out of date. I have no idea what this party will stand for and given the complete absence of even a vague direction in their initial press releases, I’m not sure they do either. Suffice to say the pair are clearly on the right of the political spectrum, but who their audience will be outside of their existing pool of voters is unclear.

I really don’t think this changes anything. Collins ought be comfortably re-elected, O’Donoghue’s situation should be much more difficult, although of his opponents, Niall Collins (FF) has gone through a whole bunch of scandals and I’m not sure Sinn Féin have a clearly strong candidate. He’s up against it but still has a chance. That may change if we see sudden a expansion of candidates – something I’m by default skeptical of – but for now, this looks less like a serious political movement and more like two Independents in a trench coat.

From a polling perspective, as with all new parties, it’s not possible to factor this into projections, so they will continue to be assessed as Independents (as I do for all parties that do not have polling data).

Seat Changes

Once again we have changes in eight constituencies. The big one has been bad polling for FF in Dublin, but SF aren’t doing too well there either, although it hasn’t affected many projections. On the other hand, SF have been doing well in Leinster, with Independents struggling there, so that has also affected quite a number of seats.

Clicking on the linked name for each constituency should jump to the relevant section of this page. Changes on this page indicate changes from the initial redraw (August 2023’s) projections; changes on constituency pages indicate changes from current composition.

Note: The projections reflect, and always have reflected, most likely outcomes. So if a final seat is more likely for candidate X over Y, the model will show X winning the seat.

This does not mean the scenario where Y wins doesn’t exist, or even is necessarily unlikely (there’s a lot of marginal calls!). It also does not mean that every single “most likely” scenario will come true; statistically that in and of itself is probably not going to happen. This is true from from a simple probability point of view, even if we ignore deficiencies in underlying data. A projected result merely means that the model thinks X winning is the most likely outcome.

• Dublin Fingal West (FG +1, FF -1)
• Dublin North-West (FG +1, FF -1)
• Dublin South-Central (R2C +1, FF -1)
• Dublin West (GP +1, SF -1)
• Laois (SF +1, FG – 1)
• Longford-Westmeath (SF +1, IND -1)
• Meath West (AON +1, SF – 1)
• Wexford (SF +1, FG +1, LAB -1, IND -1)

Weak polling for Fianna Fáil in Dublin in the recent period has a significant effect here, swinging the final seat in Fine Gael’s favour. Despite their general decline nationally, FG continue to outrun their 2020 GE numbers in Dublin. This is pretty marginal overall however, and there will likely be a chunk of transfers from centre-left candidates floating around. How those break down is going to have a big impact, so I wouldn’t get too comfortable on this.

This could well be the seat that Regina Doherty ends up moving into, and seeing things like this will be encouraging for Fine Gael. Whether or not her name recognition helps in what is going to be a very tough contest remains to be seen.

This is interesting. Previously the situation here has been that if Fine Gael do manage to leapfrog Fianna Fáil, they themselves would be leapfrogged by a second candidate from Sinn Féin. With SF’s numbers in Dublin going backwards alongside Fianna Fáil’s, and Fine Gael’s increasing, this is no longer the case and the model favours FG to nick the last seat here.

That said, the way the SF vote breaks down between two candidates is an unknown factor still, while the model bases it on historical data this is fairly thin, so there’s certainly ways SF could vote manage their way to two seats here even on these numbers. Whether or not it’s possible for them to do so is a completely different question.

Another Dublin seat this month where Fianna Fáil are losing out, but I’m not sure how long this one endures for. Part of the reason Joan Collins (Right2Change) is favoured to hold her seat is the retirement of PBP’s Bríd Smith. Smith’s successor will likely drop votes, and a significant chunk of these should go to Collins. The other reason is that there were two very high polls for Independents in Dublin – one from IPSOS and one from B&A.

If these are indeed outliers, the numbers will subside and the model will look less favourably on Collins – though it’s worth noting that modelling right now has Fine Gael passing Fianna Fáil as the most likely party to win a right-wing seat here. This remains a closely contested constituency with a lot of potential to surprise, so elimination order and transfers – two things that are hard to project – may play outsize roles here and throw up something unexpected.

The Greens are a party in dire need of some good news, but here’s some for them – while they are getting utterly fustigated in 25 counties (31 if we consider their weak performances in the most recent sets of Northern Ireland elections), their polling is holding up in Dublin. Not doing well – they are still down on GE 2020 – but holding up enough to stay competitive in the majority of their current seats. With Sinn Féin having a couple of poor polls in Dublin, that’s enough for the model show incumbent TD Roderic O’Gorman holding on in Dublin West.

Let’s be real though – the final two seats here are in complete coinflip territory between the Greens, PBP-Solidarity and a second Sinn Féin candidate. The current numbers indicate a very tight race and the addition of the fifth seat has done little to clear it up.

Charlie Flanagan (Fine Gael) is retiring, and what can you say but good riddance? One of the most singularly unpleasant, reactionary figures in mainstream Irish politics, swathed in his father’s legacy, finally shuffles off the board, and possibly takes his seat with him. Laois is a tricky one for Fine Gael, without an immediately established replacement – and this is strong territory for Fianna Fáil, plus fertile ground for Sinn Féin to continue to grow behind an impressive electoral performer in Brian Stanley.

The saving grace for FG here may be SF’s lack of depth – they only have two councillors and one of them, Aidan Mullins, spends all his time ranting on the internet about immigrants and thus cannot possibly be let anywhere near a GE run. So Fine Gael may end up holding on here, but they are up against it on current polling numbers.

While we have seen Sinn Féin struggling a bit in Dublin, their numbers in the midlands remain quite strong – and the model sees them sneaking the final seat in Longford-Westmeath ahead of Kevin “Boxer” Moran (IND). Interestingly, modelling shows SF doing really well on FPV, but transfers could be a lot more challenging as there isn’t a pool of left-wing candidates that will feed into them.

There’s a lot of unanswered questions here, like how geography will come into this highly divided constituency and if SF can make it work in their favour. But it is worth nothing that Sorca Clarke put in a performance in 2020 that pushed past those traditional lines. If that can be replicated, it puts SF in an even stronger position, particularly when it comes to stealing transfers away from FF and FG.

This isn’t a surprise, I don’t think. Aontú remain extremely frustrating – borderline impossible – to model with great confidence, as small movements bring big changes. That’s the case here again this month as the model vaults them above Sinn Féin to hold their sole seat. I still think this is the actual likely outcome regardless of the polling fluctuations, but I expect this to continue to bounce back and forth between now and an election, unless something drastic changes (or SF decide to only run one candidate).

I can’t remember the last time I had a double change in one round of projections, but here we are – Wexford swinging to the mainstream and away from Labour and Verona Murphy (IND). Independents have had a few weak polls in Leinster recently, which explains Murphy’s decline. Labour have also dropped a good bit as well; combining that with Brendan Howlin’s planned retirement puts them in a really difficult situation.

Neither are out of it by any means, and of course suggesting what may or may not happen with unknown second SF candidates does leave a significant margin for error. This constituency could be really competitive, probably more so than the other two involved in the Wexford/Wicklow redraw.

Other notes

• No other notes this week – this post is late enough as it is, let’s not make it worse!

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