Longford–Westmeath

Profile

Province: Rest of Leinster

Seats: 5 (+1 from redraw)

Current TDs: 1 SF, 2 FF, 1 FG

Projection: 1 SF, 1 FF, 2 FG, 1 IND

Analysis

May 2024

Fine Gael slip marginally ahead of Fianna Fáil in Longford-Westmeath, where one of the big three parties should be able to pick up a second seat. The model remains really tight between SF, FG and FF in terms of FPV, so historical vote split and candidate management data provides the difference here, with the natural caveat that there are a multitude of reasons that could make that change. Naturally if the polls continue in the direction they are going, that will bring daylight here as FF and SF are on a downward trajectory.

January 2024

A reversal of last month’s projections, hardly a huge surprise in the context of a decline for Sinn Féin and an increase for Independents. The caveat to bear in mind – assuming of course that SF to attempt to win two seats here – is that the split between their two candidates could change this outcome without the vote totals moving. Right now the assumption is based on historical data, as I have discussed before elsewhere, but there’s certainly potential that extremely precise vote management could still win them a second seat on these numbers.

Transfers are also an issue here as ever, with the geographic split between the two counties having outsize impact; there’s a lot going on here underneath the headline figures and this remains a tricky one to be greatly confident in the projections.

October 2023

While we have seen Sinn Féin struggling a bit in Dublin, their numbers in the midlands remain quite strong – and the model sees them sneaking the final seat in Longford-Westmeath ahead of Kevin “Boxer” Moran (IND). Interestingly, modelling shows SF doing really well on FPV, but transfers could be a lot more challenging as there isn’t a pool of left-wing candidates that will feed into them.

There’s a lot of unanswered questions here, like how geography will come into this highly divided constituency and if SF can make it work in their favour. But it is worth nothing that Sorca Clarke put in a performance in 2020 that pushed past those traditional lines. If that can be replicated, it puts SF in an even stronger position, particularly when it comes to stealing transfers away from FF and FG.

August 2023 (redraw)

Longford-Westmeath takes back the eastern part of Westmeath that was previously in Meath West (imagine trying to explain all these names to someone who isn’t familiar with Ireland…) and becomes a five-seater. Previously, the fourth seat was incredibly close and adding a seat doesn’t do much to clarify things – there are now two seats here that will be very, very hard to call.

Overall the addition of the new EDs tips the balance marginally towards Sinn Féin and away from Fine Gael and Independents, but it’s still a fairly small amount of movement overall. SF, FG and FF are all more or less guaranteed one seat here. Beyond that, things get very interesting.

All three big parties will on current numbers be able to run up in the range of 1.5 to 1.75 quotas, and thus will have second candidates well in range of being elected. Independent Kevin “Boxer” Moran should also poll well. The last two seats are incredibly tight between these four. A huge amount will come down to how votes are divided (typically here it’s one candidate in Westmeath and one in Longford), and of course transfers – which are dictated as much by geography as by party lines in this constituency.

For example, look at Michael Carrigy’s (FG) transfers in 2020. More of his transfers broke party lines to go to fellow Longford man Joe Flaherty (FF) than went to his Mullingar-based Fine Gael running mate.

This creates significant unpredictability in an element that is already very hard to project. On top of that, I have these four separated by less than a percentage point. The model does assign marginal favour to Moran and a second FF candidate at this stage, but this is fundamentally a coin-flip.

June 2023

You know it’s a good spell for Independent candidates when Kevin “Boxer” Moran (IND) is projected to win back the seat he lost in 2020. Since I started tracking, I think this is only the second change in this constituency, which is remarkable.

The way geography impacts this constituency is notable however – and much more powerful than party bonds, based on transfers and FPV. So while “Boxer” has advantages in a pure mathematical sense based on current polling, how the other parties approach running here will have a serious effect on him – and everyone else. Ultimately that makes this less predictable than it might seem until we know who the candidates are and where they are based.

December 2021

This is a new one – the first time we’ve seen a change in Longford-Westmeath. Fine Gael are struggling in Leinster right now – Sinn Féin are nearly 13% clear of them and Fianna Fáil are barely 2.5% behind. This should have been a real target pickup for FG and now it looks to be slipping away. Indeed, FG, FF and SF support in the constituency are likely within a few percentage points of eachother, so while for now the final seat is back with the FF incumbent, it’s far from certain. When things are this tight, factors like geography, candidate numbers and vote splits have a potentially outsize role to play.

It is worth bearing in mind however that there’s a substantial wildcard in play in the form of former TD Kevin “Boxer” Moran (IND). It’s not that I think he’ll get his seat back – that would be very, very difficult on current numbers – but rather if he doesn’t run again, where would his votes go? We haven’t seen Boxer’s votes transfer since 2011 – and then they broke roughly 61% FG, 25% SF and 14% FF.

But it’s impossible to estimate the impact of things like geography, or the fact that SF are much stronger now than in 2011, or that his votes in 2011 could only go to those three parties because of the elimination order. If he doesn’t run again, it’ll be really interesting to see the impact.

January 2021

Longford-Westmeath is one of the more geographically divided constituencies in Ireland; the two counties involved vote heavily local, to the point where the strategy for the bigger parties has invariably been to run a Longford candidate and a Westmeath candidate. This doesn’t even factor in that on top of that there are the normal local divides within each county, but the bigger split here is stark.

SF’s seat is safe, as is FG’s, and one FF seat. FG are on course have enough support to get a second candidate over the line ahead of the second FFer, likely making the swap at the Longford end of the constituency. With that said, the numbers are still close and that could change – especially if SF are able to drive gains outside of Sorca Clarke’s strongholds around Mullingar.