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Latest Posts and Poll Analysis
European Election Poll April 2024
This June, there will be two elections in Ireland – one for the local authorities, and one for the European Parliament. The modelling I’m doing is purely General Election based, so is of relatively minimal utility for either, but we can still take a look at the polls and see if they give us any…
Simon Harris and the Impact of Party Leader Changes on Polling
No monthly projections in March, as we only have one poll with regional breakdowns since February, and running the model off of one poll is counter to one of the fundamental principles of this project. I was originally planning to use this month to publish the first set of a study of the Pobal Deprivation…
February 2024 Projections Update
Seat totals Sinn Féin 60Fianna Fáil 39Fine Gael 38Independents 17Social Democrats 8PBP/Solidarity 4Green Party 3Independent Ireland 2Labour 1Aontú 1Right2Change 1 Changes since January 2024 Sinn Féin -1Fianna Fáil -2Fine Gael +1Independents +1Social Democrats +1PBP/Solidarity +1Green Party ncIndependent Ireland ncLabour -1Aontú ncRight2Change nc Seat Map There were three polls in February – from Ireland Thinks, RedC…
Irish Election Projections 