Wicklow

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Province: Rest of Leinster

Seats: 4 (-1 from redraw)

Current TDs: 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 GP, 1 SD

Projection: 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SD

Analysis

January 2024

Stephen Donnelly returns in the model, albeit by a margin that is almost non-existent, so the last seat here should be considered a coin-flip on current numbers, and there are many ways that Sinn Féin could vote-manage their way a second seat with these numbers. Still, it’s a sign of how things are going that what were very close edges to SF a few months ago are now going against them, though it would take minimal movement to reverse something like this.

Fianna Fáil, for what it’s worth, are running ahead of Fine Gael in Leinster on current polling; Fine Gael are absolutely nowhere near threatening for a second seat here. While the model still assumes two candidates, if they do only opt to run one, that could have some interesting knock-on effects, and would probably hurt FF by reducing the amount of transfers available.

August 2023 (redraw)

Wicklow has the southern part of its constituency carved off and added to the new Wicklow-Wexford constituency, and consequently loses a seat. As all the incumbent TDs are based in either Bray or Greystones, none of them are in much of a position to move. Three of them – Fine Gael’s Simon Harris, Sinn Féin’s John Brady and the Social Democrats’ Jennifer Whitmore, should be fine.

One of those incumbents, Steven Matthews (GP) is almost guaranteed to lose his seat to Sinn Féin and the redraw does nothing to change that. However, a similar situation emerges here as the one in Wexford – one of the parties here, rather than lose a seat, will see it go to the new constituency. In this case, it’s Fianna Fáil.

It’s been a while since we had a “Zero Steves” projection for Wicklow, but the redraw has Stephen Donnelly as the odd man out here. Now, I hear you say, that doesn’t make sense, how does losing south Wicklow hurt a Greystones-based TD? The answer is simple – Donnelly was helped massively in 2020 by transfers from his running mate Pat Casey. Although not actually South Wicklow based, Casey ran far, far ahead of Donnelly in the area, and Donnelly needed his transfers (and a dismal FG vote management strategy) to finish fourth in 2020.

That said, he’s not out of it yet – the gap between him and theoretical second SF candidate is small and certainly within a normal polling error. He is up against it, make no mistake (and I know some people in FF who think he could retire) but don’t take this as an indication that he’s done and dusted. If he’s up for it, he could make a fight of this and end up holding.

November 2021

Fine Gael really should comfortably take two seats in Wicklow, so what gives? Under most recent polling, Fine Gael are sliding downward rapidly in Leinster. While Fianna Fáil aren’t exactly doing well, they stand to benefit and the model reckons Stephen Donnelly ought be favoured to keep his seat by the tiniest of amounts.

However, this is an extremely fine margin of probability, and if Fine Gael get their vote split right, they could very easily take this seat. Donnelly’s personal unpopularity, while not something the model can capture, must also be borne in mind when assessing this constituency.

October 2021

This remains another very close constituency that has only got closer as the year has gone on, with steady changes in Leinster for Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin reflecting in an extremely tight race for two final seats. Simon Harris (FG) and John Brady (SF) will comfortably keep their seats. The Soc Dem’s Jen Whitmore, while quite a bit further back, has a huge edge on transfers, particularly with the Greens overwhelmingly likely to lose their seat.

As before, it’s Stephen Donnelly (FF) fighting with second candidates from FG and SF for those last two, and right now the momentum has swung back in SF’s direction, albeit by the finest of margins. This is going to be intensely competitive for a while yet, unless one of the competing parties sees a substantial increase or decrease in its support.

April 2021

There have been a lot of close calls this month, and this might just be the closest of the lot. To illustrate this, when modelling out the election in Wicklow, by the 10th count, Stephen Donnelly (FF), a second Sinn Féin, a second Fine Gael, and a third Fine Gael candidate are all separated by less than half of a percentage point. As it stands the model now shows Donnelly and a Fine Gaeler emerging versus last month where it was FG and SF, but it honestly may as well be a coin flip at this point. Vote management is going to be absolutely critical here, especially for SF.

January 2021

Wicklow is set to be the only constituency in Ireland that looks like it will go from being represented by two Steves to zero at the next election. FF’s Stephen Donnelly and the GP’s Steven Matthews have had opposite problems in government – the former has being involved in a series of high profile blunders, the latter has been absolutely invisible – but both are looking at getting their seats wiped out as their respective parties decline in the polls.

Matthews really hasn’t a hope, but Donnelly, who as Minister for Health has been the government’s official punchbag during the COVID crisis, isn’t completely gone, though he faces an uphill battle. SF and FG both have the numbers to win two seats – indeed, FG aren’t a million miles off having three as a realistic prospect – so there really is only one other seat up for grabs.

And that means Donnelly would need to outpace SD incumbent Jen Whitmore. The model shows that Donnelly would be able to beat Whitmore on FPV (unless FF run two candidates here, which would be spectacularly ill-advised), as the SDs polling is not holding up well, but Whitmore is an absolute transfer magnet, and with an eliminated Matthews likely only adding to that pool, she is favoured to beat out the FF Minister for a seat.