Waterford

Profile

Province: Munster

Seats: 4

Current TDs: 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 GP, 1 IND

Projection: 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 IND

Analysis

October 2024

This is a pretty straightforward one this month – continuation of the Sinn Féin decline kicks in in one of their strongest 2020 constituencies, giving an edge back to incumbent Independent TD Matt Shanahan.

It should be noted that the model is still very close between Fianna Fáil, Shanhan and the second Sinn Féin candidate, Cllr Conor McGuinness. There is one thing the model can’t account for well at this stage that might help SF – geography. With all the other big hitters based further east, the Dungarvan-based councillor does have a path to overperformance – though it should be noted that FF’s Mary Butler was strong in west Waterford in 2020. This is very much a place where the strength or weakness of their campaign could make all the difference for SF, FF or even FG, though the latter do look a bit more comfortable on these numbers, as long as they don’t attempt two candidates again.

September 2024

Okay, so we are in a good polling period for Independents, the third Sinn Féin seat here disappeared a while ago (and they have since confirmed they are only running two). So why on earth is the model showing incumbent TD Matt Shanahan being more likely to lose his seat than to hold it? There’s a couple of things going on here.

To be blunt, Shanahan won his seat in 2020 based on two things: Sinn Féin getting their candidate strategy wrong and Fine Gael doing… exactly the same thing. If SF ran two and FG ran one, as they should have, it is pretty likely that neither Shanahan nor Green TD Marc Ó Cathasaigh win seats (Ó Cathasaigh is not, on current polling, likely to be relevant in the fight for the final seat). With SF announcing two candidates and FG announcing one, the vote distribution is looking to be much more efficient.

On top of this, Fianna Fáil’s polling is looking up, and Mary Butler did comfortably outpoll Shanahan in 2020. Combine all of this and you have a situation where the Independent’s position is squeezed, but as usual I will note it’s pretty close overall and this could move around again fairly easily, particularly if SF can’t stop their nosedive.

February 2024

This website has been going for over three years, and the third projected Sinn Féin seat in Waterford remained stubbornly modelled, but for the first time, it’s gone. I think it’s probably fair to say on some level that this was an artefact of the model that I couldn’t fairly resolve but actually wasn’t likely in reality. But regardless it’s a notable point in terms of SF’s declining support in Munster. Based on transfer analysis, these newly eliminated SF votes would favour incumbent Independent TD Matt Shananhan over Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael, and would be enough to hold his seat. I would of course note that there is not guarantee SF actually run three candidates here; with two, the transfer dynamics could be quite different.

Also, with FF dropping down a bit in Munster too, that puts them behind FG for the last seat. It is completely within the realms of possibility that they are both able to win a seat ahead of Shanahan, but for now the modelling gives him an edge. Also don’t exclude either FF or FG doing something sub-optimal with their candidate numbers here.

August 2023 (redraw)

Waterford was unchanged by the redraw.

May 2023

Not much to note here – a reversion of last month. Despite Fianna Fáil looking weaker in Munster, Fine Gael are in even worse shape. A lot of their minor “revival” at the back half of 2022 was due to polling in Munster, and that’s now fading faster than FF’s support is dropping. As usual I’m still not convinced about that third SF seat, so both FF and FG may hold on here. Incumbent Matt Shanahan (IND), elected off the back of spare SF transfers and a monumentally incompetent strategy from FG, still has an extremely difficult path to holding on unless this constituency adds a seat.

April 2023

Fianna Fáil continue to not look great here, and in what will be a close race for the last two seats, are now on the outside, behind Fine Gael and a third Sinn Féin candidate. Despite the big story being around a very bad poll for FG, FF have been fading in a slower but more consistent manner – and this will reflect in further projected losses if it continues.

I still think the model can’t account for Waterford correctly and SF won’t win three seats here – but I haven’t found a solution that doesn’t involve completely arbitrarily capping the SF vote. There simply isn’t enough data to change the approach here.

February 2022

Still waiting for that third Sinn Féin seat to disappear, but the first change in Waterford is different – Fine Gael dropping another seat to Fianna Fáil. Or, I suppose more accurately, FF now being favoured to hold a seat that FG looked like they would win from them. This is again a worrying sign for FG, Waterford is a clear pick-up target where they should have won a seat in 2020 but made a mess of their candidate strategy in the constituency.

The one other thing to look out for is the upward trending Independent numbers in Munster. If that continues to tick on, Matt Shanahan could re-enter the conversation. He’s a good way off at the moment, and 2020 was strange as the field behind Cullinane (SF) was extremely fractured. But there’s no guarantee this one won’t be another mess by the time an election rolls around, so the door is not completely closed for him.

January 2021

It is absolutely no exaggeration to say that if Sinn Féin’s David Cullinane had printed his name on the ballot three times in 2020, he’d have won three seats all by himself. While his FPV percentage was not the highest in the country, it was still ludicrous and allowed him to absolutely monster a divided field, with his surplus effectively denying Fine Gael two seats. With Sinn Féin’s polling in Munster surging, they are poised to absolutely dominate Waterford and three seats isn’t just a likely outcome – on current numbers, it’s almost inevitable.

Fine Gael really should have taken a seat here in 2020, but a poor candidate strategy combined with Cullinane’s massive surplus breaking left denied them. If they have the sense to only run one, they should have no problem taking the non-SF seat.

That means that three incumbents – FF’s Mary Butler, the GP’s Marc Ó Cathasaigh and Independent Matt Shanahan – are looking likely to lose out, all three suffering from their groups’ polling trends. Of the three, Butler has the best chance of being competitive and may manage to sneak in if Fine Gael mess up their candidate strategy like last time round. Things are grimmer for Shanahan, a single-issue candidate who has had his single issue whipped from under him by the government, and Ó Cathasaigh, as Green Party whip, has ended up being forced to be the public face of a number of deeply unpopular moves by his party in Government. As it stands right now, neither of them have a chance.

It is worth noting that all this could go out the window if Waterford Hospital’s cath lab actually gets built before the next election.