Tipperary South

Profile

Province: Munster

Seats: 3

Current TDs: 1 SF, 1 IND ^{(incumbents in former Tipperary constituency)}

Projection: 1 FG, 1 WUA, 1 IND

Analysis

October 2024

Will Sinn Féin actually come away from Tipperary without a seat? I’m not fully convinced, but the model seems to think so this month, and there’s reasons to believe it. County splits hurt them disproportionately when their vote drops, as it’s less geographically concentrated in one end or the other than many other parties or individuals. This means that when polling is good, they look much better than others to win on both sides, but when it’s bad, they look more likely to lose out in both.

Incumbent TD Martin Browne doesn’t gain a massive advantage from the redraw, his vote in the South Tipp EDs was about level with Fine Gael’s and only a couple points ahead of Fianna Fáil. With major changes in polling for Sinn Féin since we last looked at this, his position is difficult.

FF are certainly in play here, but the model right now favours former TD Séamus Healy (Workers & Unemployed Action) to get back into the Dáil ahead of both. Healy had a difficult election last time but in a more positive environment for Independents/Others, he looks good to do better this time. The redraw helps him a ton, as his support is highly concentrated around Clonmel and Carrick-on-Suir (the latter might be interesting, given that both FF and Labour are running councillors based near there). But right now the model sees it as very close between him, FF and SF for the final seat, with FG a little further clear.

One other person worth watching is Cllr John O’Heney, and Independent based in Cashel-Tipperary LEA. While it’s difficult for him given the other high-profile Independents/Others in the race and I don’t expect him to win a seat, it’ll be interesting to see if he pulls votes from other candidates who are strong in that area – Browne, but also likely poll-topper Mattie McGrath (IND).

August 2023 (redraw)

The other side of Tipperary split is Tipp South, which has two incumbent TDs – Independent Mattie McGrath and Sinn Féin’s Martin Browne. Both should be able to cruise to defending their seats. The final seat here ought to be Fine Gael’s, a pick-up the model was projecting them to make anyway under the old five-seater, hence the “no change” listed above.

However, it’s far from an easy win for FG. Fianna Fáil will likely be strong here and the model doesn’t have them far behind, especially if they can get a stronger candidate and strategy for South Tipp than last time.

This did look fairly simple but then something happened when I was in the middle of writing this. Clonmel based former TD Séamus Healy of the Workers and Unemployed Action Group, who I had erroneously believed to have retired, announced his plans to run. In terms of this post I don’t have time to fully account for the impact of this – though a cursory glance has him as competitive but not favoured for a seat – but I will in the next set of projections.