Tipperary North

Profile

Province: Munster

Seats: 3

Current TDs: 1 FF, 1 LAB, 1 IND ^{(incumbents in former Tipperary constituency)}

Projection: 1 FF, 1 LAB, IND

Analysis

October 2024

We haven’t had an Alan Kelly (Labour) holding his seat projection since January of 2022, so, here you go lads. With Labour looking in better shape than recent months, Kelly, who was usually shown as being competitive in the model, slips back into the top three in the newly re-split Tipperary North. That said, he was always a likely candidate to outperform polling and the model projections anyway given his resilient and highly concentrated support base.

Overall, this constituency has got a bit more interesting recently. It’s the stronger end of the county for Fianna Fáil, but the decision to run two candidates is a little hard to figure out, though overall unlikely to hurt them unless their polling starts to drop. Fine Gael and Sinn Féin can probably get respectable results (moreso the former), but are very much up against it at the moment. The real intrigue is with the Independents. Cllr Joe Hannigan hasn’t declared, but the model still factors him in until we get confirmation either way, and he’s got a strong support base in the north-west of the county. Cllr Jim Ryan however has declared – and he topped the poll in Thurles in the local election, which alone makes him an interesting prospect for an upset.

The good news for Ryan is that there’s only one other candidate likely to seriously challenge for a seat who is based in or around Thurles.

The bad news is that it’s Michael Lowry.

September 2024

This one is weird, I’m going to say it. Tipperary is highly idiosyncratic and always difficult to project given the wide and deep distribution of Independent votes. Combining that with being split into two new constituencies introduces a ton more complexity and uncertainty. Right now the modelling shows that an Independent could win a second seat here, based on Cllr Joe Hannigan’s performance in 2020 (the model assumes he will run again until demonstrated otherwise). Hannigan got around 10.5% of FPV in what is now Tipp North in 2020, and with Independents polling well, the model assumes he can beat that score.

As stated at the start though, caution is needed with this; he may not run at all, other Independents running could split support, and there will be competition between Fine Gael councillor Phyll Bugler, whoever Sinn Féin put forward, and, if he runs again, Labour TD Alan Kelly. The dynamic of Bugler and Kelly both being based in the same part of the county could cause outcomes modelling can’t predict. This is doubly true because Fine Gael, in a stroke of unmatched genius, ran two South Tipp candidates in 2020 and nobody in the north of the county. There’s a ton of questions here, and while incumbents Michael Lowry (IND) and Jackie Cahill (FF) should be fine, the final seat is extremely unclear.

August 2023 (redraw)

Tipperary is split once more, with Tipp North gaining EDs previously in Limerick City, as well as a chunk of Carlow-Kilkenny. Given the small size of the new constituency, these combine to have a relatively significant population impact – around 12.5%. There’s currently three incumbent TDs in Tipp North – Micheal Lowry (IND), Jackie Cahill (FF) and Alan Kelly (LAB), but the model doesn’t think all three are safe.

Lowry certainly is, and Cahill should be okay. Previously, Kelly was shown losing his seat in the old five-seater, and this redraw definitely benefits him. He would have more than likely come third here in 2020, but right now the model doesn’t think he’ll hold off Sinn Féin. There’s a few factors in this – firstly, Labour are polling poorly in Munster and have been ever since Kelly was deposed as leader, while SF continue to significantly outperform their 2020 result in polls in the province. Secondly, SF ran a Cashel-based candidate in 2020, a North Tipp candidate could pull more votes away from Kelly. Finally, the new areas added to the constituency are much more SF-friendly than the average ED in the old parts of North Tipp.

I had suspected Kelly would retire, but the redraw should certainly give him an incentive to stick around. While still not favoured by the model, he has a much better chance of holding now. But there are other unknowns to also consider in addition to the new EDs, for example what happens to the 3.5% of FPV that went to South Tipp-based McGrath or Healy (both INDs) in 2020? Who will the SF candidate be, where will they be based and will they be any good? What if John Hannigan (IND) opts not to run again, freeing up around 10.5% of FPV? If the bulk of this goes to Lowry, and he gets a huge surplus, how does that transfer? There’s a lot that can happen here that will change how the last seat falls.