Meath East

Profile

Province: Rest of Leinster

Seats: 4 (+1 from redraw)

Current TDs: 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF

Projection: 2 FG, 1 SF, 1 FF

Analysis

September 2024

Fine Gael are now looking likely to win the second seat in Meath East which they lost in 2020, albeit in a different configuration. With Regina Doherty now heading off to Europe, it falls to Cllr Sharon Tolan to partner Minister Helen McEntee. While the pure maths does favour her for a seat, it should be noted that Tolan is in her third term in Laytown-Bettystown LEA – which is the same LEA that McEntee is based in. It will be interesting to see how Fine Gael manage this with no candidate at the Ashbourne end of the constituency, and if that geographical overlap results in underperforming polling. I suspect McEntee will focus on the southern part.

The question here is about Independents, as mentioned in the last set of projections – both Senator Sharon Keoghan and Cllr Joe Bonner put in solid performances in 2020, and the good polling environment for Independents indicates likely improvements. As neither have confirmed if they are running or not, the model assumes the 2020 configuration – both running. This likely cancels out and makes it less likely either will get in – a single big name Independent would be projected for a seat. This seat is also a big target for Aontú, with Cllr Emer Tóibín looking to join her brother in the Dáil. If Keogan runs, the odds of that move from unlikely to vanishingly small.

August 2023 (redraw)

Meath East has undergone a fair bit of expansion, adding the Meath EDs that were previously in Cavan-Monaghan, plus the Julianstown ED from Louth. That’s a decent chunk, just under 14% of the new constituency’s population, the vast majority of it in Julianstown.

These are most beneficial to Sinn Féin. SF would, under current polling conditions, have been favoured to take the 4th seat regardless. However the additions certainly look like they will help them in that. Fianna Fáil don’t really have a hope of a second seat and while Regina Doherty (FG) could come crawling back because there’s no space for her in Fingal with the redraw, she also finished 5th here in 2020.

There are still some questions however – Seán McCabe did very well for the Greens here last time. He won’t run for them again and the Green vote will likely disintegrate; where that goes will be important. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Sharon Keogan (IND) run here again – her time in the Seanad has raised her profile, but also exposed her as a professional crank with some truly vile opinions. Whether that helps or hinders her, depressingly, is an unknown, and there’s equal potential for her to be a dark horse as there is for her to fall flat on her face.

June 2021

Meath East isn’t particularly interesting (sorry, Meath East fans) compared to some of the other constituencies; the only intrigue is whether the final seat can be held by FF’s Thomas Byrne, or if FG can win it back. With FF’s good recent polling, Byrne has the edge – and even if he doesn’t, Regina Doherty’s decision to move constituency might make this tougher for FG to hold than the numbers indicate.

January 2021

FF’s Thomas Byrne is in trouble. He lost his seat to FG in 2011 – where FF lost both their seats – before reclaiming it in 2016. History looks to repeat here, as the FF vote in Meath East is very flaky, and Byrne has proven before that he isn’t a strong enough candidate to buck the trend of his party’s fortunes in election years.

Sinn Féin ought to do well, with another strong left-wing Green candidate leaving the party, leaving a chunk of left votes available to be scooped up, but not enough to make up the gap to FG to bring a second candidate into play. FG are poised to dominate here, and it’s difficult to see any outcome where they don’t take two seats.