Louth

Profile

Province: Rest of Leinster

Seats: 5

Current TDs: 2 SF, 1 FG, 1 LAB, 1 IND

Projection: 2 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 IND

Analysis

September 2024

Sinn Féin are once again playing it safe in a strong area, opting to only run two in Louth. Three candidates would be marginally viable even on current numbers, but further decline could make it risky, and there are a few LEAs in Louth where running too many candidates may have cost them a seat. So it makes sense for them to shore up the two incumbents here.

You might wonder what’s with the Independent seat given that Peter Fitzpatrick is retiring. Right now the model thinks that Councillor Kevin Callan will be able to grab his seat, while Fine Gael will slide into what should have been SF’s third seat. I’m always a little cautious about Independents but Callan does not seem like an outrageous call – and an ex-FG Independent retiring so an ex-FG Independent can take his seat is a neat little parallel.

He’s not a sure thing however, as Labour TD Ged Nash is very close behind under the modelling, and further polling improvements could very much put a second candidate from FG or FF right into the mix.

January 2024

Interestingly, this change is less to do with increases in Independent polling and more to do with the planned retirement of Fine Gael TD Fergus O’Dowd, which leads to a projected downgrade in their FPV based on a generic candidate. However, this could change substantially because while Fine Gael only hold five seats on the council, they have two ex-councillors with high profiles – MEP Colm Markey and Senator John McGahon.

Now, if I’m Fine Gael I’m not letting someone with McGahon’s chequered past anywhere near a Dáil seat, but I’m not Fine Gael, and clearly the party has plans for him – he was their lead FG candidate on his panel in the Seanad elections, he’s been appointed a spokesperson and has been put forward for plenty of media appearances. Markey, on the other hand, is significantly older, represents a lower-population town (Ardee vs Dundalk) was a substitute into the European Parliament and, unlike McGahon, has never contested a Dáil election. I would expect either one of these to outperform the current generic number for FG (I expect McGahon to be the candidate).

The beneficiary of this at the moment is former Fine Gael man Peter Fitzpatrick, a three-term TD currently sitting as an Independent. Given his background he seems a natural fit for voters who might move away from Fine Gael, and he pulled in transfers from all over the place in 2020. On the other hand, his FPV performance wasn’t stellar and he is very much a Dundalk candidate – which is exactly where McGahon, if he is the candidate, will have his support base. But with that said, Fitzpatrick did comfortably beat McGahon in 2020. There’s a lot of different dynamics at play here with a Dundalk-based candidate that weren’t a factor with the Drogheda-based O’Dowd.

August 2023 (redraw)

Julianstown ED moves to Meath East; it’s a fairly big population for a single ED, but on current numbers things in Louth are quite stable and this doesn’t change much bar putting Peter Fitzpatrick (IND) a little further ahead of Ged Nash (LAB) as they both try to beat the odds and hold their seats.

February 2022

Fianna Fáil continue to gain here, and with Labour’s Leinster surge from last year regressing to the mean, they move ahead of Ged Nash in terms of likelihood for a seat here. Nash is one of many vulnerable Labour incumbents, so it will be very interesting to see how the leadership change affects polling here, and if he may end up regretting not challenging for leadership.

FF have been quietly building steam for a while across pretty much the whole country, and if this continues I expect to see them move ahead a few more seats like this, but if they run an overambitious candidate strategy like they did in 2020, these seats aren’t secure. Indeed, Louth is a good example of a place where running two again would be very, very ill advised, unless their numbers improve a fair bit more.

September 2021

Ged Nash looks set to be a beneficiary of the polling surge for Labour in Leinster, rapidly going from also-ran to marginally favoured. While Fine Gael and Sinn Féin are assured of holding their seats, the projected third SF seat is now in serious question – while Fianna Fáil are currently set to lose out to Labour, they are behind the third SF candidate by a really narrow margin, and even slight polling movement could easily flip this.

April 2021

Louth still shows three seats for Sinn Féin even with changes, but recalibrating things puts the second FG seat in serious question, and indicates a slight advantage for Fianna Fáil. SF have a big advantage here in terms of transfer friendliness as well as their projected FPV. Behind them, and one safe Fine Gael seat, things look a bit murkier now than they did before. While FF do in theory have the numbers to get a single candidate elected, Louth does have a geographic division when it comes to transfers – particularly between Dundalk and Drogheda – which as something the model can’t really account for, could end up having an impact, given how narrow their margin over a second FG candidate is.

January 2021

Louth is shaping up to be excellent for SF based on polling. In 2020, they proved they could win two seats – and comfortably so – without the iconic Gerry Adams, substantially increasing their vote share and getting both candidates in on the first count, despite the relative inexperience of Ruairí Ó Murchú. Bouth his and Imelda Munster’s seats are rock solid, and the model shows that if they run three candidates, the most likely outcome is that they all make it home.

Similarly, FG are poised to win back the seat that IND Peter Fitzpatrick took with him – and successfully defended in 2020 – after he left the party.

While both outcomes are probable, neither is completely guaranteed. A strong single-candidate from FF could take the last seat ahead of a second FG candidate, and Labour’s incumbent Ged Nash will also be in the mix along with Fitzpatrick.