Limerick County

Profile

Province: Munster

Seats: 3

Current TDs: 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 II

Projection: 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 II

Analysis

September 2024

This really feels more like things averaging out and correcting themselves than anything else – there isn’t a lot to say here. Limerick County was always going to be tricky for Sinn Féin, despite a surprisingly strong showing in 2020 with a candidate who wasn’t even based in the constituency. With the tide going out and Independents/Others in a stronger spot, it was inevitable that these trends would lead to the model favouring Independent Ireland’s Richard O’Donoghue.

Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are running two candidates and given that both parties are basically guaranteed a seat each, this must be seen as gunning for the II seat. Even with their polling improvements, this looks pretty distant at the moment.

August 2023 (redraw)

Limerick County was unchanged by the redraw.

January 2021

FF’s Niall Collins and FG’s Patrick O’Donovan look comfortable, but IND Richard O’Donoghue is in trouble. SF nearly took the third seat here in 2020 with a candidate who had lost his council seat the previous year, and the Munster trends are very, very favourable to SF, so the third seat looks theirs to lose.

The only potential source of interest here is if FF run two rather than one – doing so would slide Collins backwards into a fight with a second FG candidate and O’Donoghue, but he would still have a decent chance at emerging from this successfully.