Limerick City

Profile

Province: Munster

Seats: 4

Current TDs: 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 GP

Projection: 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 IND

Analysis

September 2024

Model revision on the Social Democrats has an impact here, removing the seat it briefly showed them being favoured for at the start of the summer. While not influencing the model directly, the Mayoral election does indicate that SD support is a lot softer than it calculates in Munster – which does sort of raise the question as to where all these new SD supporters in the province actually are, or if we are looking at a very plausible small-party polling error.

With Sinn Féin’s vote tumbling – and seemingly only running one candidate – Independent councillor Frankie Daly is now given an edge. Daly pushed hard in 2020, finishing fifth, but it is worth noting that his vote declined in the locals and his Mayoral showing was respectable but unspectacular. On the other hand, the Mayoral election did show very strong votes for Independent candidates in general. None of this is factored into the model, of course, because it can’t be directly applied to a GE, but it is informative context.

Daly isn’t a shoo-in of course; Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will both be looking for a second seat here. Senator Maria Byrne didn’t do particularly well in 2020, but we are looking at a better polling environment for Fine Gael, and honestly their vote management wasn’t amazing. Dee Ryan did reasonably well in the Mayoral election for FF, beating the FG candidate. Neither is super-close right now but if current polling trends continue, both candidates have good profiles and could get more competitive.

May 2024

This is interesting. This is the first time the model has indicated any likely change to the composition of the TDs elected in Limerick City – in January 2021 it projected 2 Sinn Féin, 1 Fianna Fáil and 1 Fine Gael, and has consistently stuck to that up until today. The Greens are almost certain to lose the seat here, and it appeared for the longest time that SF would be the ones to take advantage – it’s even plausible that SF could have pulled that off in 2020 if they had run two candidates, although transfers do raise some questions there.

Regardless, this feels like a significant milestone in SF’s polling struggle, as well as a hugely positive sign for the Social Democrats – though as I have written in this month’s broader analysis, there are reasons for caution when approaching their figures in Munster. Still, this again feels like a significant step for them; being competitive in places like Limerick is going to be key if they are to break through at any point. The Mayoral Election, while obviously not necessarily indicative of what will or won’t happen in a GE, could be interesting in this regard (although it covers both City and County).

Frankie Daly (IndIrl) remains intriguing here too, for what it’s worth. There’s a lot that could happen with that final seat.

August 2023 (redraw)

A geographically relatively large but relatively lightly populated area around Newport and Birdhill moves to Tipperary North; this is a plurality Fianna Fáil area but owing to its small population size, it has almost no impact on the projections.

January 2021

Is there a TD in the current Dáil who has spent more time fighting with their own constituents on Twitter than the Green Party’s Brian Leddin? In that sense, he has stepped up to fill the void left when Noel Rock (FG) lost his seat in DNW. This strategy appears to be working out about as well for him as it did for Rock.

Leddin’s seat, always tenuous, is gone in the current polling environment, indeed the model indicates he’ll struggle to outpoll Labour, the SDs or even a moderately strong Independent like Frankie Daly. However, it is SF who are best positioned to take advantage; Maurice Quinlivan should be easily able to bring in a running-mate.

FF’s Willie O’Dea remains teflon, and Kieran O’Donnell of FG should have no problems holding his position, though there isn’t quite enough FG support at the moment for them to have a shot at a second seat.