Laois

Profile

Province: Rest of Leinster

Seats: 3

Current TDs: 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG ^{(incumbents in former Laois-Offaly constituency)}

Projection: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 IND

Analysis

October 2024

Right off the bat, I want to urge a lot of caution about Laois. Séan Fleming (FF) and Willie Aird (FG) should have no problem being elected on current numbers, but after that? Oh boy. After Brian Stanley TD’s highly public and acrimonious departure from Sinn Féin, followed by his decision to run as an Independent, it’s very difficult to be sure about how this will go. The model favours an Independent seat here and thinks it is likely to be Stanley, but this is very far from clear cut.

Let’s start with what’s in Stanley’s favour. He’s obviously popular – three successful general elections, including in 2020 where he won nearly 18% of the vote in Offaly, as a Laois-based candidate. Indeed, looking at just Laois, he significantly outran Sinn Féin nationally in both 2016 and 2020. As to how that vote will break down between him and the party, there isn’t data to be certain, but SF are in a bad state in Laois at the moment. In the locals they only won two seats. One of these was won by Stanley’s partner Caroline Dwayne-Stanley, and the other by Aidan Mullins – who quit the party shortly afterwards once SF finally took disciplinary action against him. Cllr Mullins claimed he was being censored for his conservative views. You know the ones.

This left SF without a viable candidate among their elected reps, and have had to look to an unsuccessful local candidate in Maria McCormack – far from a fatal problem, but one that certainly makes for more of an uphill struggle.

So add all this to a generally positive environment for Independents, and there’s a reason the model favours Stanley. But, let’s consider the other side. How much the manner of his departure from the party impacts his appeal is a significant unknown, it could be nothing or it could be significant. There’s also two other Independent candidates with reasonable profiles who quit their parties – Elaine Mullally, who was former chair of Independent Ireland, and Cllr Aisling Moran, who left FG and went on to successfully defend her council seat as an Independent. So Stanley isn’t the only potentially strong Independent in the race, even if he should be favoured based on the maths, and this should be borne in mind.

May 2024

The slow decline of Sinn Féin polling support kicks in once again, as the model favours Fine Gael to be able to hold on here to their former Laois-Offaly seat, even with the incumbent TD retiring. There’s still a lot of unclear things in Laois, in particular with Carol Nolan presumably running in Offaly – where her support goes is an open question. But for now, this sees the second SF seat drop away, a pattern that will be repeated elsewhere as SF continue to regress in their polling.

October 2023

Charlie Flanagan (Fine Gael) is retiring, and what can you say but good riddance? One of the most singularly unpleasant, reactionary figures in mainstream Irish politics, swathed in his father’s legacy, finally shuffles off the board, and possibly takes his seat with him. Laois is a tricky one for Fine Gael, without an immediately established replacement – and this is strong territory for Fianna Fáil, plus fertile ground for Sinn Féin to continue to grow behind an impressive electoral performer in Brian Stanley.

The saving grace for FG here may be SF’s lack of depth – they only have two councillors and one of them, Aidan Mullins, spends all his time ranting on the internet about immigrants and thus cannot possibly be let anywhere near a GE run. So Fine Gael may end up holding on here, but they are up against it on current polling numbers.

August 2023 (redraw)

Laois splits off from Laois-Offaly and forms its own constituency again, including taking back a decent chunk of voters with the return of the EDs south of Portarlington from Kildare South.

Currently there are three incumbent TDs in Laois – Brian Stanley (SF), Séan Fleming (FF) and Charlie “My Father’s Footsteps” Flanagan (FG), and on current numbers all should hold; I don’t see any party having a reasonable shot at picking up a second seat in this three seater; although Flanagan is the most vulnerable, he should be fairly comfortable. The model previously had Fleming losing out to SF, but with the redraw, he looks to be in a pretty safe position.

The main interest here comes from Independent/Other votes. There will be a bit of leftover votes from Carol Nolan, John Leahy and Ken Smollen (all Offaly based, so presumably wouldn’t run in Laois), plus a chunk of Cathal Berry voters migrating from Kildare South. Not enough on its own to make up a seat, but enough to potentially change the race if they can be picked up disproportionately by one party or the other. There’s also the possibility that Berry – who is actually based in Laois – moves here. I have no idea how such a move would pan out, but it would make things very, very interesting.