Kildare South

Profile

Province: Rest of Leinster

Seats: 4 ^{(3 open, as Ceann Comhairle (FF) returned automatically)}

Current TDs: 1 FF ^{(incl. CC)}, 1 SF, 1 FG, 1 IND

Projection: 2 FF ^{(incl. CC)}, 1 FG, 1 IND

Analysis

September 2024

Sinn Féin’s struggles continue as a the seat they won in 2020 despite their candidate rather famously taking a holiday in the middle of the campaign looks like it might not be successfully defended. It should not be a tremendous surprise to see Fine Gael as beneficiaries once again; Martin Heydon was pretty comfortable in 2020 and a similar support level for FG would see him safe, let alone the increased one they now seem on track for.

I do think the model is, even after revision, still a little generous to Independent TD Cathal Berry, who has seen a large amount of his support base carved off in the redraw. Independents remain challenging to disambiguate as I have talked about many times before, so I would remain cautious here. The gap between FG, FF, SF and Berry is also not particularly significant. Assuming it is only three seats available, this is right now looking very close for all of the seats and nobody is in a completely secure position.

Note that this is still under the model where the Ceann Comhairle runs again and automatically retains his seat. If Seán Ó Fearghaíl (Fianna Fáil) opts to retire, the model favours SF to retain a seat here. Previous caveats around Fiona McLauglin-Healy also still apply.

May 2024

This is very interesting, and illustrates again some of the issues around Independents. Cathal Berry (IND) lost a significant chunk of his voter base in the redraw, and really shouldn’t be in any shape to hold his seat, but the model is showing this as more likely than not in the face of surging Independent polling across Rest of Leinster. The problem here is in part due to other Independent Fiona McLaughlin-Healy, who picked up a solid chunk in 2020, but has declined to run for council again and thus presumably will not run for the GE again.

This is the kind of situation where the Independent vote becomes hard to measure, and transfers in particular become chaotic. There is absolutely a good mathematical chance for an Independent candidate to win a seat here; but there is also potential that the vote fractures and fragments. Both Berry and McLaughlin-Healy’s performance was due largely to compact areas of extreme strength. With a large part of his base gone, is Berry in a position to capitalise on the surge? Could McLaughlin-Healy go again? Could someone else emerge? Could the vote fracture and dissipate, against the national trend? All are plausible, all could also not happen. I have no idea.

August 2023 (redraw)

Kildare South sees a reasonable chunk of population move out as the EDs around Portarlington return to Laois and Offaly, as well as a smaller area between Naas and Newbridge move to Kildare North. The latter has minimal impact, but the former is devastating for Cathal Berry (IND), significantly diminishing his chances of holding his seat. Even under a situation where the Ceann Comhairle retires, the model has him dropping not just below Labour, but also a theoretical second Sinn Féin candidate. He’s in big trouble; however if Fiona McLaughlin-Healy (IND) opts not to run following her resignation from local politics he may get some hope back – she transferred to him very well last time. But for now, he looks done.

November 2021

The Labour boost in Leinster is now truly ebbing, and the seat that looked open for Mark Wall has swung back towards Fianna Fáil, though not by a huge margin. The next few rounds of polling here will be informative as to whether we really were just dealing with an outlier, or if there is something that can be sustained.

If the CC retires however, Wall remains favoured to win the final seat, though Sinn Féin have been polling strongly in the province and if they continue to tick up, may be in a place where they should look seriously at the viability of a second candidate. There’s still a way to go before that manifests, however.

October 2021

Yeah, I dunno about this one, man. I’ve flagged Kildare South a few times for being potentially interesting in the case that the Ceann Comhairle retires, but this is the first time I’m seeing something interesting regardless. Labour have been polling very strongly in Leinster of late (though B&A has them a good chalk up on Red C), and that’s reflected in the model now favouring, albeit incredibly narrowly, Mark Wall for the final seat.

Wall has contested this seat – occupied by his father for 19 years – twice and has been competitive, if not particularly close, in both those races. In 2016 his FPV wasn’t enough and in 2020, he got overwhelmed on transfers by Fiona O’Loughlin (FF) and eventually winner of the final seat, Cathal Berry (IND). With Independent numbers in Leinster looking very poor, the model indicates that Berry is set to struggle. This is another one of those ones where I think the model may be underestimating an Independent, but I have no basis for that other than my gut, so I will have to ignore it.

With SF and FG in position to easily hold seats, but nowhere near being able to run two candidates successfully, the final seat on current numbers is between FF and Labour, and Labour have the edge for the first time. If the CC retires, both should get in.

January 2021

Other than Carlow-Kilkenny, this is the only constituency set to return two FF TDs, but that’s due to the automatic return of the Ceann Comhairle, Seán Ó Fearghaíl, which effectively renders this a three seater for the upcoming election.

If FF run one candidate they should be able to take the seat away from Cathal Berry (IND); if they run two like they did in 2020, they will have a harder time of it.

If the Ceann Comhairle retires, the re-opened fourth seat becomes a very close race between Berry, a second FG candidate and Labour’s Mark Wall, if he runs again. Currently the model favours a second seat for FG under this circumstance.