Dublin South-West

Profile

Province: Dublin

Seats: 5

Current TDs: 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 GP, 1 PBP

Projection: 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 LAB, 1 PBP

Analysis

September 2024

It’s been a good summer in Dublin for Labour as they move marginally ahead of the Greens and continue to close the gap on the Social Democrats in the polling average. This results in a change in Dublin South-West – one we have actually seen before not too long ago – where the model thinks that Councillor Ciarán Ahern has the best chance of taking the final seat – albeit with a very slim probability margin.

While right now the first four seats look secure, the last seat in DSW has become very open. As well as the aforementioned Labour and SD candidates, Fianna Fáil are pushing to get a second candidate elected, as are Fine Gael – who are hampered by traditionally worse vote management in the constituency – with Sinn Féin a bit more distant but still in the mix. Incumbent Green TD Francis Noel Duffy is on these numbers almost certainly going to lose the seat, but it’s very unclear as to who will be able to take it from him. But for now, Labour have that very small edge.

February 2024

Well, that Labour seat projection didn’t last too long, as the high-water-mark in Dublin polling for the Social Democrats sees them favoured for the last seat here this month. Most of the factors highlighted last month still very much apply here, and this is far from clear cut, but between the Greens, Labour and the Soc Dems there’s a lot of centre-left transfers available, and past data indicates that they are more likely to transfer to eachother before going to Sinn Féin or People Before Profit. Still, a second seat for SF ahead of any of the centre-left parties remains a distinct possibility.

January 2024

This was a surprise to me initially. I thought the Labour vote here was always reasonable under the model, but never had them in the running for a seat, but then I looked back at October and I saw I had overlooked something – they were extremely close then, and weren’t miles off in the redraw calculations either. This is something I should have spotted but didn’t – so let’s talk about it now. ^{(I am never beating the anti-Labour bias allegations, am I?)}

Labour are doing okay in Dublin overall, somewhat up on their GE 2020 performance, but down a little from their mid-2022 peak. But the key factor here isn’t actually Labour’s support itself. Firstly, and most importantly, they stand to gain quite a bit from the decline in Green Party support, if they get ahead of the Greens, that’s likely to throw a bunch of transfers their way. Secondly, the downswing in Sinn Féin support has now reached a level where a second SF candidate is likely to be catchable, although as ever this will depend a lot on how the vote is split (the model thinks SF are likely to accumulate ~1.5 quotas, which is an extremely tricky number). Thirdly, there are assumptions made around the former Zappone vote based on a number of factors; this is potentially problematic but that chunk has to be accounted for, and Labour do fairly well in that calculation.

So based on this the model does favour Labour, but it’s also worth keeping an eye on the Soc Dems, who are pretty close here, and of course it will not take much of a reversal in SF’s fortunes to have them favoured for a second seat here again.

August 2023 (redraw)

The moving of Tallaght Fettercairn ED into Mid-West was one of the more controversial recommendations of the boundary commission as it seemed to make very little geographic or community sense. It does hurt People Before Profit. However, with some left-wing voters coming in from South-Central, it’s offset enough that doesn’t change the calculus much here, although it certainly makes it tricker for them. Honestly it hurts Sinn Féin more, but no-one gets major benefit, as this ED was 80%+ SF or PBP in 2020. Also, everyone running here has probably been helped by Green incumbent TD Francis Duffy deciding to publicly immolate whatever remained of his re-election hopes.

October 2021

It’s been a while since we did the aul Paul Murphy (PBP) seat shuffle, so it’s about time for the model to pop him back in. The final two seats remain close but Fianna Fáil’s John Lahart looks a lot more comfortable than he has before. The current indication is a race between Murphy, and theoretical second candidates from Fine Gael and Sinn Féin. There’s not much here that hasn’t been said in the past – and Murphy’s seat is very much still up for grabs.

Good Green polling in Dublin means that the final incumbent, Francis Duffy, still isn’t completely irrelevant, but without an incredible bit of trend-bucking and an unexpected break towards him on transfers, he’s going to be on the outside looking in. Unless, of course, that B&A poll is correct and the GP actually have 15% support in Dublin – but I very much doubt that based on other data.

April 2021

I feel like I move Paul Murphy (PBP) in and out of holding his seat every time there’s a new poll, and that reflects how close things are currently in DSW. This constituency was really messy in 2020 and is probably only going to be a little better next time out. There are two factors to consider behind Murphy’s low FPV in 2020 – on the one hand, he looked dependent on SF transfers, but he also had a running mate that probably artificially depressed his FPV total. Either way, this looks increasingly like there’s going to be an almighty scrap for the last three seats between Murphy, John Lahart (FF) and second candidates from SF and FG.

None of them should feel particularly comfortable right now, and how SF’s vote split and transfers are managed could be absolutely decisive. Good discipline could make the second seat simple, poor discipline could hand Murphy an easy path, and it’s possible – albeit unlikely – that both could be elected.

For FG, things are relatively straightforward, but they may end up being at the mercy of centre-left transfers. While the Greens and Labour have had no issue transferring to FG in the past, it feels like a lot of the more FG-sympathetic voters from those parties are going to just straight up vote for FG instead. This could result in a lower than expect rate of FG transfers from those parties (and there’s precedent for this with Labour in 2020, where their transfers became substantially more left-leaning as their overall support declined), which could end up making the difference. For now, an edge for FG, but this one is going to be very close and depend on a number of factors.

February 2021

Not much of note here, just a tough bit of polling here for FG; January’s numbers looked like a comfortable second seat, but the latest updates from Dublin have them falling marginally behind Paul Murphy (PBP). John Lahart of FF is also looking shaky, and could end up being overhauled by both, but that would require a continued drop in FF’s Dublin support – and though this is plausible, their numbers are fairly flat at the moment. Francis Duffy (GP) isn’t entirely out of this one yet either, but he’s still distant enough that he would need a notable polling shift to re-enter the conversation. How well Sinn Féin fare, and how their transfers go, is going to have a huge impact on the last few seats in this one.

January 2021

SF and FG should easily win two seats each here, with Seán Crowe and Colm Brophy both well poised to bring in a running mate. The reduced SF surplus available if they run two looks like its spells doom for the remaining left wing incumbents, particularly Francis Duffy (GP).

With that said, Paul Murphy (PBP) ^{(please do not email me 5,000 word essays about the internal structure of the Solidarity-PBP Alliance and how RISE operates within that model)} does have a potential path here to take the final seat ahead of FF’s John Lahart, though it relies on a few factors. Firstly, I don’t know whose idea it was to run two PBP candidates in, well, any constituency where they did it, but they definitely should not do it again here. Secondly, it requires FF to – and this is quite plausible given they ran three candidates here last time for no good reason – run more than one candidate.

If both these things happen, it will be very close and while the model still marginally favours FF even under these conditions, it’s no dead cert. If FF only run Lahart, Murphy isn’t ruled out entirely, but the chances of him keeping his seat will become much lower.