Dublin South-Central

Profile

Province: Dublin

Seats: 4

Current TDs: 1 SF, 1 PBP, 1 GP, 1 R2C

Projection: 1 SF, 1 PBP, 1 R2C, 1 FG

Analysis

September 2024

Another constituency in Dublin, another theoretical second SF seat disappearing – indeed, this month, the model doesn’t see them winning two seats anywhere in Dublin. However, this, along with Dublin Mid-West is somewhere where is is still very much viable and we are looking at a very thin margin between them being favoured or not. Given that PBP’s incumbent TD Bríd Smith is retiring, there is also more uncertainty over their support level than there would be otherwise, but with all that in mind, the model gives the edge to her successor, Cllr. Hazel De Nortúin.

Fianna Fáil also have a shot at being competitive here, and while this constituency has undergone wild swings in every election since 2007, it would need an increase in the government support numbers, even versus where we are now, to project both FG and FF being able to take a seat here.

January 2024

With the current downward trend in Sinn Féin votes, the presumed surplus here becomes very tight, and that hurts People Before Profit more than anyone else – and sees them slipping behind Fine Gael, who are holding steady in Dublin at a figure above their GE 2020 result. As a result of the SF decline, I have reduced their optimal number of candidates from three to two, which also reduces the theoretical number of transfer open to PBP.

There’s still a fair amount of uncertainty here about how the PBP vote will hold up with a new candidate, but it is likely going to be more difficult to hold than it was when assuming Bríd Smith would run again. Further changes to the SF vote again could have a lot of knock-on impacts here.

October 2023

Another Dublin seat this month where Fianna Fáil are losing out, but I’m not sure how long this one endures for. Part of the reason Joan Collins (Right2Change) is favoured to hold her seat is the retirement of PBP’s Bríd Smith. Smith’s successor will likely drop votes, and a significant chunk of these should go to Collins. The other reason is that there were two very high polls for Independents in Dublin – one from IPSOS and one from B&A.

If these are indeed outliers, the numbers will subside and the model will look less favourably on Collins – though it’s worth noting that modelling right now has Fine Gael passing Fianna Fáil as the most likely party to win a right-wing seat here. This remains a closely contested constituency with a lot of potential to surprise, so elimination order and transfers – two things that are hard to project – may play outsize roles here and throw up something unexpected.

August 2023 (redraw)

Dublin South Central takes Kimmage C from Bay South and gives three EDs to South-West, mostly around Terenure. Some other EDs on the west side of the the constituency also move but I do not think there are any residential zones in those areas. This doesn’t affect the overall projection at the moment but hurts Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael mostly, plus the Greens to a lesser extent. Sinn Féin, Right2Change and People Before Profit stand to benefit the most from the move – although Bríd Smith’s (PBP) not seeking re-election is, of course, a wild card here.

June 2023

Fianna Fáil move marginally ahead of Fine Gael here, although it’s very close. There definitely seems to be one right-wing seat in a constituency that in 2020 returned four TDs who ran as left-wing candidates. The Green seat here looks very difficult to hold on current numbers, and Joan Collins (R2C) faces an uphill struggle without Sinn Féin transfers. Could one of the incumbents hold on, or could SF even manage to get three in? None of these are impossible, but all are less likely than a seat for FF or FG.

One thing to note again is that the model isn’t quite sure what to do with Collins; currently she’s treated as an Independent and her FPV did collapse in 2020 in the face of Sinn Féin’s surge. The model sort of has to assume the same dynamics, but this is one of those ones where there’s certainly potential for it to be wrong.

April 2021

It’s not all doom and gloom for PBP in Dublin, in spite of the serious polling difficulties mentioned earlier on. Remodelling DSC, specifically giving SF a much more realistic split of the vote between three candidates, puts Bríd Smith firmly back in pole position for the fourth seat. SF could still manage three, of course, as their raw FPV remains very solid here, but it would require an extremely delicate vote managing act that will be very difficult to pull off.

If SF can’t pull this off, it’s not clear that there’s anyone else who could compete with Smith – the GP and FF vote here is floundering, Labour and the SDs are non-factors even with decent candidates like they ran in 2020, and FG are nowhere near competing for a second seat. The only potential wild card is Joan Collins (R2C). Because R2C is electorally a one-woman show, they don’t get polled separately, so projections for her are based on general IND trends. There’s no way of knowing how accurate that is.

Collins’ FPV imploded in the face of the SF surge in 2020, but she was extremely transfer friendly and was able to hold her seat, overhauling a huge deficit to overtake FF and FG. With SF running at least two candidates, it’s going to be super-tough for Collins, but her vote is totally unpredictable so I’m not going to write her off entirely.

January 2021

The People’s Republic of Dublin South-Central was the only constituency in Ireland to return zero right-wing candidates in 2020, a rare feat last achieved by Dublin North-West in 2011. That situation doesn’t look like it will endure for the next election, as a number of factors look set to decimate smaller parties’ chances in the constituency.

Firstly, SF are posed to absolutely clean up here. Veteran TD Aengus Ó Snodaigh crushed the rest of the left at the last election, before his surplus bailed them all back out. Sinn Féin are guaranteed two seats, and if they run three candidates, would be more likely than not to get them all returned.

Still, the third SF seat is no slam dunk and will need a candidate who can win in inner city and south suburban areas where Ó Snodaigh’s vote is relatively lower. This does give Bríd Smith (PBP) a path to holding her seat, although it will be difficult. If SF play it conservative and only run two candidates, Smith should be able to hang on without too many problems. Joan Collins (R2C) and Patrick Costello (GP) could also be in play under either of these scenarios, but are much longer shots than Smith to benefit.

Secondly, despite the constituency’s left-wing lean, 2020 was the first time since its creation that it did not return a Fine Gael candidate, and Smith beat out FF in 2016 by literally 35 votes. With FG’s numbers surging in Dublin, they look very safe to take a seat here. This combination spells an uphill struggle for the smaller left-wing parties to hold their seats.