Current TDs: 1 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 GP, 1 LAB
Projection: 2 SF, 2 FG, 1 FF
Corrected modelling of the FG vote explains this to a large extent, but there’s more than just this going on. This is a much more politically diverse constituency than, for example, DBS above. The decline in the GP’s support has a very real impact here. Joe O’Brien certainly isn’t done for, and how the breakdown of Labour transfers goes will be really significant here. That said with polling showing a consistent downward tick for his party’s support in Dublin, O’Brien holding this seat looks more and more challenging. It’s worth noting that it’s not simply a case of Green Party vs a second FG candidate; a second Sinn Féin candidate wouldn’t be clear of that fight either – there are two seats in play rather than just one.
It feels like every Dublin constituency will have two Sinn Féin candidates romping home at this stage, but that isn’t the case for Fingal. Yes, Louise O’Reilly will handily hold her seat, and while the most likely outcome is her bringing home a running-mate, it’s far from a sure thing. There is going to be an almighty contest for the final seats here.
Before getting into that, I should also note that FG’s Alan Farrell is safe, as is FF’s Darragh O’Brien, though if FF opt to run two candidates they open up a real risk that he slides backwards into the mix competing for the remaining seats.
There’s going to be a very close contest behind that between incumbents Joe O’Brien (GP) and Duncan Smith (LAB) and the second candidates from SF and FG. Right now, the model favours O’Brien and SF, but again, with current trends for the Green Party down and Fine Gael going up, this projection could easily change multiple times over the coming months.