Dublin Fingal West

Profile

Province: Dublin

Seats: 3

Current TDs: 1 SF, 1 GP ^{(incumbents in former Dublin Fingal constituency)}

Projection: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 IND

Analysis

September 2024

Note: Following comment from a local councillor pointing out that Sinn Féin TD Louise O’Reilly is more likely to run in Fingal West, I have moved her into this constituency.

Similar to Fingal East, I advise caution on this one due to increased uncertainty around new constituencies. I would also add that this is marginal as it is, and heavily influenced by SF not being particularly adept at picking up transfers, which can vary a lot depending on the specific constituency. So, again, even more caution should be exercised than normal, and I’m less confident in this being correct than the Dublin Fingal East projection.

More than anything else, this should be read as another interpretation of how badly SF are faring in Dublin, that a sole incumbent TD is projected, albeit marginally, to lose their seat. Individuals can always of course beat trends, but right now this is looking extremely close and the door is wide open for Fine Gael’s Grace Boland and Fianna Fáil Senator Lorraine Clifford-Lee. Green Party TD Joe O’Brien doesn’t look competitive, and the model still assumes Independent councillor Tony Murphy runs – if he doesn’t, the nature of the race will change enormously.

October 2023

Weak polling for Fianna Fáil in Dublin in the recent period has a significant effect here, swinging the final seat in Fine Gael’s favour. Despite their general decline nationally, FG continue to outrun their 2020 GE numbers in Dublin. This is pretty marginal overall however, and there will likely be a chunk of transfers from centre-left candidates floating around. How those break down is going to have a big impact, so I wouldn’t get too comfortable on this.

This could well be the seat that Regina Doherty ends up moving into, and seeing things like this will be encouraging for Fine Gael. Whether or not her name recognition helps in what is going to be a very tough contest remains to be seen.

August 2023 (redraw)

On the other side of the deeply aesthetically unpleasing boundary is Dublin Fingal West. This is a diverse constituency, hinged on the commuter towns of Rush, Lusk, Skerries and Balbriggan, but also taking in a swathe of more rural towns and a new heavily urban/suburban area within the M50, moved from Dublin North-West. This latter area is particularly important as it will make up around 17% of the population new constituency and is heavily left-wing. All three EDs voted well over 50% for Sinn Féin and the Soc Dems in 2020, although turnout here is quite low compared to most Fingal EDs. This should lock in seat for SF, who are already strong in this part of Fingal.

If Fingal East is spicy because it has four incumbents scrapping for three seats, West has its own piquancy in trying to work out who will run there, with only one incumbent. As above, SF should be fine regardless. Fianna Fáil appear to be running first-time candidate Sinéad Lucey Brennan, founder of their Disability Network. FF’s base vote here is pretty solid, and the model favours them to win a seat. Regina Doherty (FG) might not have any choice but to run here for Fine Gael, but I don’t know if everyone will be happy with that, least of all her.

And what of that lone incumbent, Joe O’Brien (GP)? It’s not looking good, honestly. While he keeps his very strong base around Skerries, the rest of the EDs that moved into West are much less favourable for him than the ones in East. Incumbency may be an advantage, and the quality of candidates fielded by other parties will matter a lot, but on raw numbers, it looks very tough for him right now, particularly because there’s another candidate who will absolutely love this redraw.

Tony Murphy (IND) topped the poll in Balbriggan in the 2019 LE and has unsuccessfully contested the GE twice in Fingal. Almost all of his votes a concentrated in this new constituency and he has an excellent chance at making it stick this time. There is some uncertainty introduced by both him and the FF candidate being Balbriggan-based, but right now the model favours him to pick up the final seat here.