Dublin Fingal East

Profile

Province: Dublin

Seats: 3

Current TDs: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 LAB ^{(incumbents in former Dublin Fingal constituency)}

Projection: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 I4C

Analysis

September 2024

Note: Following comment from a local councillor pointing out that Sinn Féin TD Louise O’Reilly is more likely to run in Fingal West, I have moved her out of this constituency.

This is an interesting one, and I would like to start by emphasising that there is a lot more uncertainty around new constituencies than with other projections, so please do bear that in mind. However, with Sinn Féin seriously struggling in Dublin polls, the model shows them being unable to add to their tally in the Fingal area. Instead, the model favours Independents4Change councillor Dean Mulligan.

Mulligan benefits from the redraw as his voter base is well over twice as strong in Fingal East as it was in Fingal West (based on 2020 tally figures), and we saw in the last general election that he is extremely transfer friendly – despite getting less than 4% of FPV, he finished less than 200 votes away from taking the 5th seat. If he is still able to attract transfers at that rate, particularly in a positive environment for Independents/Others, this is a very plausible outcome.

The other person who could potentially benefit from SF’s struggles is Labour TD Duncan Smith, who at the time of the redraw looked doomed. He still has a bit of a mountain to climb but this is the strongest position he’s seen for a long while. If SF really are doing as poorly as the polls indicate, he could very much find himself in a three-way fight with their candidate and Mulligan for the final seat.

August 2023 (redraw)

Rather than move parts of Fingal in Dublin North-West or Meath East and add seats, the comission opted to split the five seater into two three-seaters with the ugliest boundary possible. The East constituency seems built very specifically around Swords, Portmarnock, Malahide and Donabate, and moves the Balgriffin ED to Bay North. This constituency is super-spicy because it contains four of the five sitting TDs for the old Fingal constituency: Alan Farrell (FG), Darragh O’Brien (FF), Duncan Smith (LAB) and Louise O’Reilly (SF). One of these is going to lose out and spoiler alert: It’s Duncan Smith.

While the Labour candidate keeps most of his base around Swords, and will likely increase is overall FPV, the drop from two to 5 seats will likely be fatal to his chances. This is the stronger new constituency for both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, and their incumbents will likely re-run.

Sinn Féin’s position is a bit weirder, as despite being Swords-based, O’Reilly actually did better in the areas in the new Fingal West, largely because of relative SF weakness in Malahide and the addition of new areas inside the M50 to West. However, I don’t expect her to move; she’s really strong in Swords and, as an incumbent, seems to me to be better placed to hold in the less-SF friendly constituency than a new candidate might be.