Cork South-Central

Profile

Province: Munster

Seats: 5 (+1 from redraw)

Current TDs: 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF

Projection: 2 FF, 1 FG, 2 SF

Analysis

August 2023 (redraw)

Cork South-Central is an interesting one. It picked up a significant chunk of urban Cork from North-Central, all EDs south of the Lee, accounting for about 14% of the population of the new constituency. It is, however, important to note that with the exception of Bishopstown B, C and Glasheen A, these are relatively low-turnout EDs.

The redraw here looks fairly simple, similar to North-Central. The addition of an extra seat helps an under-pressure incumbent, projecting that Fianna Fáil holding both their seats is now the most likely outcome. You could easily make the case that this was always a likely outcome and that unseating Micheál Martin or Micheal McGrath was a huge ask for Sinn Féin (assuming neither retires). And I think that would be fair in many ways – as I have discussed before, modelling for candidate quality and personal votes is essentially impossible.

So, the opposite of North-Central then, without hidden complexity? Mostly yes, but there is one thing to consider – Lorna Bogue (An Rabharta Glas) finished 5th for the Greens in 2020. Despite a huge FPV gap, she cut McGrath’s lead on transfers by over 2,200 votes. If Sinn Féin or Fianna Fáil underperform here, and her vote proves more personal than party-based, Bogue has spoiler potential and could compete, albeit as a long shot. There is no polling on ARG, so this is highly speculative and I am not able to model their inclusion, but it’s the main point of interest in a constituency that otherwise looks fairly tied up.

^{(Disclosure: I am, at the time of writing, a member of An Rabharta Glas, as mentioned here)}

January 2021

Fianna Fáil have never had less than two TDs in Cork South-Central. The left has never had more than one – even when it had five seats. 2020 was the closest this has ever been to changing, with the Greens falling a couple of points short of the second FF seat. Between a polling decline and the departure of a strong candidate from the party, the GP will be nowhere in this constituency next time, and SF are in a comfortable position to be the ones to finally break the trend.

SF’s Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire blew up in 2020, almost doubling his FPV from 2016, where he had become the constituency’s first ever SF TD. He should be able to comfortably bring in a running-mate at the expense of one of the high profile FF TDs; I wouldn’t be shocked to see Taoiseach Micheál Martin retire before the next election.

FG’s Simon Coveney will keep his seat with absolute ease, but it doesn’t seem likely that his party can provide a running-mate with sufficient profile to beat a second SF candidate, or knock out FF entirely.