Cork North-West

Profile

Province: Munster

Seats: 3

Current TDs: 2 FF, 1 FG

Projection: 2 FF, 1 FG

Analysis

September 2024

Yeah, I mean, obviously.

Okay let’s be serious: this was always going to be a bit of a stretch for Sinn Féin, given this was the only constituency they didn’t compete in in 2020, and have had a troubled selection process this time around – I believe they are on their third candidate after the first two pulled out. So the seat here was always more a reflection of regional polling than anything else, and thus carried more uncertainty that usual. Seeing it drop off with SF’s polling struggles is no surprise.

What is intriguing is whether Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael – who are both guaranteed a seat here – can win the final one. Their projected FPV is incredibly close – FG have an edge, albeit a statistically insignificant one – but FF are currently favoured based on historically better vote management and transfers, but this may as well be a coin flip at this stage; I can see this moving back and forth. Bear in mind that while FF haven’t announced candidates, they have two incumbents, who I assume will both run again.

In the absence of SF in 2020, the SDs, the Greens and Aontú put in shocking overperformances here. The Greens are unlikely to be competitive, the SDs will struggle with Ballincollig moved out of the constituency, and Aontú’s Becky Kealy was unable to win a seat in the locals in her home ED. Add in the presence of SF, and right now it doesn’t seem any of them will challenge – though of course this can change.

August 2023 (redraw)

Cork North-West gains areas from North-Central and East, but more interestingly, loses the heavily populated Ballincollig ED to North-Central. Consequently, this redraw is likely to hurt Sinn Féin and the Soc Dems – whose candidate should probably move to North-Central – and help Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. The model still thinks SF can take a seat here, although data is deficient as they had no candidate in 2020. But it does become more difficult for them with the loss of a big ED that should provide them a significant chunk of votes.

June 2021

The second FG seat in CNW was always slightly questionable, premised as it was on FF running both of their incumbent TDs, which would likely have resulted in neither pulling through. However, with FG flagging in Munster and FF having a good run off polls through May and June, it now looks like FF should be favoured to get one of their candidates over the line regardless, though it is still very tight. Bear in mind that if one of them retires, the other will be a sure bet to keep the seat as a single candidate.

January 2021

Ah yes, this one.

This is the only county where I have modelled an additional party running to 2020. I’m not sure why they didn’t – Liadh Ní Riada’s political judgement once again proving questionable – as they’d have likely taken a seat. With SF polling numbers in Muster what they are, applied here in line with provincial averages, they will comfortably take a seat.

This leaves three incumbents scrapping for two seats, and polling swings put FG notably ahead of FF here. It looks increasingly likely that FF will not win a seat unless one of the Moynihans retires. One candidate without a running mate would make it fairly easily, but going in against two FG candidates with two of their own leaves the most likely outcome as FG taking both seats.

The SDs were surprisingly competitive here 2020, but the presence of an SF candidate eliminates any chance they have of building on this.