Cork East

Profile

Province: Munster

Seats: 4

Current TDs: 1 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 LAB

Projection: 1 SF, 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 IND

Analysis

September 2024

Sinn Féin are only running one candidate here and it seems reasonable – with the polling shifts, a second seat looks like a stretch although still in theory viable. The beneficiary here is however a bit speculative – currently the model assigns the seat to an Independent as it assumes Cllr Mary Linehan Foley will run again. This is not confirmed, but until we know one way or the other, the modelling will include her, as it does with other major Independents who ran in 2020.

If she decides not to run, the final seat here is quite open. Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will have a good shot at a second seat, with the former looking in better shape on current numbers. Independent Ireland may also benefit disproportionately from not having a big-name Independent in the race, and Social Democrat Councillor Liam Quaide is potentially interesting as well, particularly as he seemed to retain a good chunk of the Green vote in the last local elections. That said, he is a good bit further back at this stage.

August 2023 (redraw)

The removal of Mallow form Cork East is pretty impactful; it basically kills any chance Séan Sherlock (Labour) had of holding his seat in this constituency. It may not be a bad move for him to follow Mallow into Cork North-Central, but parts of the hinterland where he is also strong is either staying in Cork East or moving to Cork North-West. The big three – Sinn Féin, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael – benefit the most from this move.

January 2021

SF’s numbers in Munster are, in general, through the roof, and if that holds they’ll comfortably have two seats in Cork East. FG’s seat looks rock-solid regardless of their strategy, and FF are comfortable as long as they only run one candidate.

Labour’s Sean Sherlock is currently projected to lose a seat he’s held through some rough years for his party, but I should emphasise that this is very close between himself and FF – if FF run two candidates here, which they really shouldn’t, the model will likely flip and favour Sherlock for the final seat over either FF candidate.